LI Yu,CHEN Keyi,XIAN Zhipeng,et al.The Evaluation of All-Sky Assimilation of FY-3C/MWHS-2 on Mei-yu Forecasts over Jianghuai Region[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(03):308-317.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.03.011]
风云三号C星微波湿度计资料的全天候同化在江淮梅雨期降水预报中的应用研究
- Title:
- The Evaluation of All-Sky Assimilation of FY-3C/MWHS-2 on Mei-yu Forecasts over Jianghuai Region
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2022)03-0308-10
- Keywords:
- atmospheric science; satellite data assimilation; FY-3C; MWHS-2; all-sky assimilation; mei-yu rainfall
- 分类号:
- P405
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 梅雨锋系统具有突发性强、发展迅速、容易引起洪涝灾害等特点,其预报一直是气象业务系统中急需解决的重难点问题。基于此,为更好地研究风云资料全天候同化对于改善模式初始场质量,以及提高数值天气预报准确度的效果,选取2020年6月20-25日一次典型的梅雨锋过程进行模拟。基于中尺度WRF-ARW模式及WRFDA同化系统,利用FY-3C微波湿度计观测资料进行同化试验。试验结果表明:全天候同化试验提高了FY-3C/MWHS-2的资料使用率,在减小湿度场、温度场等方面的预报误差起到积极作用,且在梅雨锋降水预报中,减少了降水虚报问题的发生,提高了降水落区分布和降水量级的预报水平,对降水精细化预报和制定防灾减灾措施等工作具有一定的参考价值。
- Abstract:
- The characteristics of mei-yu frontal which is sudden to occur, develops rapidly and is easy to cause flood disaster, increase the difficulty of predictions makes the accurate forecasting of mei-yu frontal rainfall an urgent and challenging issue. Therefore, in order to study the effect of all sky assimilation on offering adequate information for the NWP initial fields and improving the accuracy of NWP, a typicalmei-yu front process from June 20 to June 25, 2020 is selected for simulation. Based on the mesoscale WRF-ARW model and WRFDA assimilation system, the FY-3C microwave hygrometer observation data is used to conduct an assimilation test. The test results show that: The all-weather assimilation test has increased the data utilization rate of FY-3C/MWHS-2, and played a positive role in reducing the forecast errors in the humidity field and temperature field. Moreover, in the mei-yu front precipitation forecast, it has reduced the occurrence of precipitation false alarms. It also improves the forecasting level of precipitation area distribution and precipitation level, and has certain reference value for the work of precise precipitation forecasting and the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-03-23
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(41875039)