ZOU Lu,XIAO Guo-jie,LI Yue-hao.Analysis on the Frequency And Intensity of Extreme Precipitation in the Northwest Yunnan during Last 54 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(05):531-536.
近54 a云南西北地区极端降水频数和强度特征
- Title:
- Analysis on the Frequency And Intensity of Extreme Precipitation in the Northwest Yunnan during Last 54 Years
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2016)05-0531-06
- Keywords:
- meteorology; applied meteorology; extreme precipitation; frequency; intensity; variation trend; temporal and spatial distribution
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探究云南西北地区极端降水的变化特征,采用云南西北地区6个典型的气象站1960～2013年的逐日降水数据 ,通过百分位阈值选取、线性倾向、小波分析、突变检验、滑动t检验等对云南西北地区近54a极端降水频数和强度 的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:年极端降水频数的范围在3.3～11.2 d,自东向西逐渐增大。年极端降水强 度的范围在42.6～26.2 mm/d,自北向东南逐渐增大。云南西北地区的极端降水频数总体上是增加趋势,但并不显著 。年极端降水频数在80年代末达到最大。极端降水强度也呈现弱增长趋势。年
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in northwest Yunnan.The daily precipitation data of six typical meteorological stations in northwest Yunnan were analyzed by using percentile threshold method,linear trend, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test so as to research on the temporal and spatial distribution of the change in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation from 1960 to 2013. The results showed that the annual frequency of extreme precipitation was 3.3-11.2 d and had the trend increas from east to west. The annual intensity of extreme precipitation was 42.6-26.2 mm/d and had the trend from north to southeast. The frequency of extreme precipitation of northeast of Yunnan province presented increasing tendency, the tendency was not obvious. The annual frequency of extreme precipitation reached the maximum at the end of the 80's. The intensity of extreme precipitation also presented a weak increasing tendency. the annual intensity of extreme precipitation showed trend during the 60's to 70's, after that had a smooth rise. The frequency of extreme precipitation had a short periodic oscillation, a periodic oscillation and a long periodic oscillation, while the intensity of extreme precipitation mainly had long periodic oscillation. The annual frequency of extreme precipitation had two abrupt change points, it changed from more to less in 1966,then began to increase in 1977.The annual intensity of extreme precipitationed a abrupt change in 1979, from reduc to increas.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-02-29 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41305076)