NIU Yan-jing,CHE Yu-zhang,PENG Xin-dong,et al.Impact of the Initial Conditions on the Medium-range Numerical Weather Prediction[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(03):297-303.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.03.011]
模式初值敏感性对中期数值天气预报的影响
- Title:
- Impact of the Initial Conditions on the Medium-range Numerical Weather Prediction
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2017)03-0297-07
- Keywords:
- meteorology; numerical weather prediction; sensitivity of initial conditions; CAM3.0 model; reanalysis data
- 分类号:
- P456.7
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为进一步研究准定常外源强迫条件下中期数值天气预报对初值的敏感性问题,采用ECMWF ERA-interim再分析资料及NCEP再分析资料作为模式初值,利用CAM3.0模式,对1982-2011年1月准定常短波辐射强迫情况下30个天气个例的15天预报结果进行分析,着重讨论预报结果对初值的依赖性,得出以下主要结论:模式确定性预报试验中,在10天内预报技巧显著,初值影响随预报时间延长而降低,10天以上仍有一定预报技巧。初值对15天以内的数值天气预报都有一定的影响,优良初值可提高预报质量。
- Abstract:
- The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0 is used for the hind-cast of 30 cases in January of 1982-2011 in order to make better understanding of the sensitivity of the medium-range numerical weather prediction(NWP)to initial conditions under quasi-steady foreign forcing. The ERA-interim reanalysis data and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data are used as the initial conditions. The dependence of the 15-day numerical results on initial conditions is investigated by inter-comparison of model results with the disturbed reanalysis data. The results of deterministic prediction show a certain forecasting skill in the forecasts within 10-day period. The impact of initial condition decreases with the time integration, and the 15-day NWP shows dependency on the initial conditions, and the forecasting skill might improve significantly with the refinement of initial conditions.
参考文献/References:
[1] 顾震潮.作为初值问题的天气形势数值预报与由地面天气历史演变作预报的等值性[J].气象学报,1958,29(2):93-98
[2] 丑纪范.天气数值预报中使用过去资料的问题[J].中国科学,1974,17(6):635-644.
[3] 丑纪范.数值天气预报的创新之路——从初值问题到反问题[J].气象学报,2007,65(5):673-682.
[4] 陈德辉,薛纪善.数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望[J].气象学报,2004,62(5):623-633.
[5] Lorenz E.N.A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model[J].Tellus,1965,17(3):321-333.
[6] Lorenz E.N.Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues[J].Journal of the Atmospheric sciences,1969,26(4):636-646.
[7] Rabier F,Klinker E,Courtier P,et al.Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1996,121:121-150.
[8] Miyakoda K,T Gordon,R Caverly.Simulation of a blocking event in January 1977[J].Monthly Weather Review,1983,111:846-869.
[9] 郑志海.月动力延伸预报研究进展回顾[J].气象科技进展,2013,1:25-30.
[10] 郑庆林,宋青丽.一个改进的T42L10谱模式及其在月预报中的应用[J].应用气象学报,1993,4(增刊):50-56.
[11] 郑志海.基于可预报分量的6-15 d数值天气预报业务技术研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010:2-100.
[12] 丑纪范,郑志海,孙树鹏.10～30 d 延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考——直面混沌[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):569-573.
[13] Dell Aquila A,Lucarini V,Ruti P M,et al.Hayashi spectra of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses[J].Climate Dynamics, 2005,25(6): 639-652.
[14] Annamalai H,Slingo J M,Sperber K R,et al.The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon:Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses[J].Monthly Weather Review,1999,127(6):1157-1186.
[15] Bromwich D H,Fogt R I.Strong Trends in the Skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR Reanalyses in the High and Midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere,1958-2001[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17(23):4603-4619.
[16] 荀学义,胡泽勇,孙俊,等.ECMWF和NCEP再分析资料在青藏高原高度场变化中的对比分析[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(1):80-87.
[17] 丑纪范,谢志辉,王式功.建立6-15天数值天气预报业务系统的另类途径[J].军事气象水文,2006,12:4-9.
[18] Collins W D,P J Rasch,B A Boville, et al.The Formulation and Atmospheric Simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3(CAM3)[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19:2144-2161.
[19] Jolliffe I.T.,Stephenson D.B..Forecast Verification:A Practtioners Guide in Atmospheric Science[M].New York:Wiley,2003.
相似文献/References:
[1]廖洪涛,肖天贵,魏 微,等.东亚梅雨季低频波波包传播特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):143.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.008]
LIAO Hongtao,XIAO Tiangui,WEI Wei,et al.Low Frequency Wave Packet Propagation
Characteristics in East Asian Meiyu Season[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):143.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.008]
[2]王雨歌,郑佳锋,朱克云,等.一次西南涡过程的云-降水毫米波云雷达回波特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):172.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.011]
WANG Yuge,ZHENG Jiafeng,ZHU Keyun,et al.Analysis of Cloud-Precipitation Echo Characteristics of a Southwest Vortex[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):172.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.011]
[3]青 泉,罗 辉,陈刚毅.基于L波段秒级探空数据V-3θ图形的四川盆地暴雨预报模型研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.013]
QING Quan,LUO Hui,CHEN Gangyi.Forecasting Model of Torrential Rain in Sichuan Basin based on V-3θ
Structural Graphs of L-Band Second Level Sounding Data[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.013]
[4]吴秋月,华 维,申 辉,等.基于湿位涡与螺旋度的一次西南低涡强降水分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(01):63.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.013]
WU Qiuyue,HUA Wei,SHEN Hui,et al.Diagnostic Analysis of a Southwest Vortex Rainstormbased on Moist Potential Vorticity and Helicity[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):63.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.013]
[5]李潇濛,赵琳娜,肖天贵,等.2000-2015年青藏高原切变线统计特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):91.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.016]
LI Xiao-meng,ZHAO Lin-na,XIAO Tian-gui,et al.Statistical Characteristics Analysis of the Shear Linein the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):91.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.016]
[6]喻乙耽,马振峰,范广洲.华西秋雨气候特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
YU Yi-dan,MA Zhen-feng,FAN Guang-zhou.The Analysis of Climatic Feature of Autumn Rainfall in West China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
[7]孙康慧,巩远发.20世纪70年代末云南省雨季降水的突变及原因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
SUN Kang-hui,GONG Yuan-fa.Abrupt Change of Precipitation in Rainy Season in YunnanProvince in Late 1970s and its Cause Analysis[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
[8]吴树炎,顾建峰,刘海文,等.高原冬季雪深与重庆夏季降水的年际关系研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):184.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.013]
WU Shu-yan,GU Jian-feng,LIU Hai-wen,et al.Interannual Relationship between Winter Snow Depth over TibetanPlateau and Summer Precipitation over Chongqing[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):184.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.013]
[9]魏 凡,李 超.利用气象雷达信息划设雷暴飞行限制区的方法研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):205.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.016]
WEI Fan,LI Chao.Study on the Method of Setting Up Limited Flying area ofThunderstorm by Using Weather Radar Information[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):205.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.016]
[10]朱 莉,张腾飞,李华宏,等.云南一次短时强降水过程的中尺度特征及成因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):335.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.017]
ZHU Li,ZHANG Teng-fei,LI Hua-hong,et al.Analysis on Meso-scale Features and Forming Reasons of a Short TimeIntensive Precipitation Case in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):335.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.017]
[11]代昕鹭,陈葆德,张 旭,等.WARMS 2.0中边界层参数化方案对
一次台风外围降水模拟预报的影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(05):513.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.009]
DAI Xin-lu,CHEN Bao-de,ZHANG Xu,et al.Impact of Different Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes on the
Numerical Smiulation for a Typhoon Rain Event in WARMS 2.0[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(03):513.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.009]
[12]代昕鹭,陈葆德,张 旭,等.边界层参数化方案中局地与非局地混合在高分辨率数值预报模式中的作用和影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(05):543.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.05.016]
DAI Xinlu,CHEN Baode,ZHANG Xu,et al.Effects of the Local and Nonlocal Mixing of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in a High Resolution Numerical Forecast Model[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):543.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.05.016]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-11-15 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575103)