MA Yunmeng,LIU Haiwen,SHI Pengxiang,et al.Rainstorm Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Chongqing on July 21, 2012[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):650-658.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.06.014]
2012年7月21日重庆暴雨集合预报试验
- Title:
- Rainstorm Ensemble Forecast Experiment in Chongqing on July 21, 2012
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2019)06-0650-09
- Keywords:
- meteorology; ensemble forecast; WRF-EnKF; Chongqing; rainstorm
- 分类号:
- P458.1+21.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究WRF-EnKF对于重庆夏季暴雨的集合预报效果,使用地面观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR高空观测等资料,根据有无进行资料同化,用WRF-EnKF方法构造2组集合预报方案对2012年7月21日重庆强降水过程进行试验,通过对该次试验结果进行检验后得出如下结论:2012年7月21日重庆夏季暴雨事件进行集合预报试验表明,WRF-EnKF集合预报系统基本能够预报出此次重庆夏季强降水事件的大部分降水范围,并且集合预报有资料同化时比没有进行资料同化时要更准确。集合预报的Talagrand 分布图大体呈现“U”型分布,即“中间小,两头大”特征,说明预报系统的离散度偏小; 同时,另外2组试验相对应的实况检验值其分布接近反“L”型分布,且在高值区上的频率比在低值区的频率高很多,这也表明集合预报和实况相比仍有一定的偏差。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the ensemble forecast effect of WRF-EnKF on summer rainstorm in Chongqing, based on the surface observational data,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NCEP Upper Air Observational Weather data, According to whether data assimilation is carried out or not, two sets of ensemble forecasting schemes are constructed by WRF-EnKF method to test the heavy rainfall process in Chongqing on July 21, 2012. After checking the results, the following conclusions are drawn: The Ensemble Forecasting Experiment of Chongqing summer rainstorm event on July 21, 2012 shows that the WRF-EnKF ensemble forecasting system can basically forecast most of the precipitation range of Chongqing summer rainstorm event, and the ensemble forecasting is more accurate when the data are assimilated than when the data are not assimilated. The Talagrand diagram generally showed "U" type distribution, which meant the feature of "the middle small, two big", which indicates that the dispersion of the forecasting system is on the low side. At the same time, the distribution of the actual test values corresponding to the other two groups of experiments is close to the reverse "L" type, and the frequency in the high value area is much higher than that in the low value area, which also indicates that the ensemble forecasting still has a similar distribution with the real one.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-01-08基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(91337215); 四川省科技计划资助项目(2015JY0109)