CHEN Xia,XIAO Lan.Improved Logistic Model and China Population Forecast[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(02):239-243.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.016]
Logistic模型的改进与中国人口预测
- Title:
- Improved Logistic Model and China Population Forecast
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2020)02-0239-05
- 关键词:
- Logistic模型; 收获函数; 最小二乘法; 中国人口预测
- 分类号:
- O212
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 在Logistic种群增长模型中引入适当形式的收获函数,得到改进模型并求出精确解,利用最小二乘法的原理和Matlab软件对改进模型进行参数估计,通过曲线拟合对比验证了该参数估计的方法能取得较好的效果,并将其用于中国人口预测。与其他文献预测结果相比较,文中预测结果更加吻合中国人口真实数据。
- Abstract:
- Logistic model is improved by introducing appropriate harvesting function and the exact solution is obtained. The parameters involved in the model are estimated by the principle of least squares method and Matlab software. Through the comparison of curve fitting, it is verified that the method of parameter estimation can achieve better results, and it is applied to the population prediction of China. Compared with other prediction results, the results of this paper are more consistent with the real data of Chinese population, and have good practical significance.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-07-10 基金项目:四川省科技计划资助项目(2018JY0169)