LI Zequan,HUA Wei.The Impact of Silk Road Pattern on Summer Temperature of China during Recent Decades[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(02):194-199.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.02.010]
近几十年丝绸之路遥相关对中国夏季气温的影响
- Title:
- The Impact of Silk Road Pattern on Summer Temperature of China during Recent Decades
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2024)02-0194-06
- Keywords:
- climate change; Silk Road pattern; summer temperature; temporal and spatial variation; influence mechanism
- 分类号:
- P425
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析近几十年丝绸之路遥相关对中国夏季气温的影响及可能机理,基于1961-2020年CN05.1高分辨格点气温资料和ERA5大气再分析资料,采用经验正交分解、回归分析和相关分析等统计诊断方法分析丝绸之路遥相关对中国夏季气温的影响及可能机理,结果表明:(1)丝绸之路遥相关主要沿亚洲急流自西向东传播,呈显著的“-+-+”分布,其活动中心主要位于里海、巴尔喀什湖和中国北方地区,并存在明显的年际变化和年代际变化。中国夏季气温整体上呈一致的变化趋势,其中20世纪60-80年代由暖到冷,90年代后又明显升温。(2)除新疆西部和西藏西部、东北地区西部及江淮地区为负相关分布外,夏季丝绸之路遥相关与同期中国大部分地区气温之间为显著的正相关关系。(3)丝绸之路遥相关可通过影响北半球对流层中高层位势高度、垂直速度和涡度平流等环流因子导致中国夏季气温异常。具体表现为受丝绸之路遥相关影响产生的位势高度正异常有利于晴好天气的维持,同时对流层中高层受负涡度平流控制,以下沉运动为主,导致中国夏季气温异常升高。
- Abstract:
- In order to analyze the influence and possible mechanism of the Silk Road Pattern on summer temperature in China in recent decades. this study used statistical diagnostic methods such as Empirical Orthogonal Function, regression analysis, and correlation analysis, based on the CN05.1 high-resolution grid point temperature data and ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data from 1961-2020. The results show that:(1)The Silk Road Pattern primarily spreads from west to east along the Asian jet stream, with a significant distribution of “-+-+”, and its activity centers are mainly located in the Caspian Sea, Lake Balkhash and the northern region of China, and exhibit apparent interannual and interdecadal variations. The summer temperature in China shows an overall consistent trend, which changes from warm to cold from the 1960s to the 1980s, and then rises obviously after the 1990s.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the Silk Road Pattern and the temperature in most areas of China during the same period in summer, except for the negative correlation in western Xinjiang, western Tibet, western Northeast and the Jianghuai area.(3)The Silk Road Pattern can lead to summer temperature anomalies in China by influencing circulation factors such as the middle and upper troposphere geopotential height, vertical velocity and vorticity advection in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, the positive geopotential height anomalies generated by the influence of the Silk Road Pattern are conducive to the maintenance of sunny weather, while the middle and upper troposphere is controlled by negative vorticity advection and dominated by downward motion, leading to the anomalous rise of summer temperature in China.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-02-27
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(42075019); 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK010203)
通信作者:华维.E-mail:huawei@cuit.edu.cn