SHAO Qingjun,ZHANG Junhong,XU Kezhan,et al.Spatial-Temporal Changes and Drought Risk Assessment of Precipitation During Crop Growth Period in Baiyin City Gansu[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(02):216-222.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.02.013]
甘肃白银农作物生长期降水量时空变化及干旱风险评估
- Title:
- Spatial-Temporal Changes and Drought Risk Assessment of Precipitation During Crop Growth Period in Baiyin City Gansu
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2024)02-0216-07
- 分类号:
- P461
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为更好地分析甘肃白银农作物生长期降水量时空变化特征,利用白银市4个国家气象站1961-2022年和37个区域气象站点1994-2022年降水日资料,并采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、小波分析、Mann-KendaⅡ法及目估适配线法等方法,着重对农作物生长期降水量的空间异常特征、周期性、突变性及干旱风险进行讨论和评估。结果表明:农作物生长期降水量从南向北递减。受地形影响,高值区位于南部地区最南端,低值区位于北部地区呈“钳形状”干舌当中,空间异常形态主要表现为3种形式:一致型、南北相反型、地形型; 年际变化北部地区有增加趋势且不显著,南部地区有减少趋势且显著,存在30 a、10～15 a的年代际周期变化,目前均处于相对偏少期; 用pearson-Ⅲ分布较好地拟合白银市农作物生长期不同保证率下的降水值,并以此为依据,将研究区按农作物生长期的降水量划分为4个区:可用区、短缺区、紧缺区、稀有区,其干旱风险分别为20%、35%、65%、90%。
- Abstract:
- To better analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation during the crop growth period in Baiyin city of Gansu province, Based on daily precipitation data from 4 national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2022 and 37 regional meteorological stations from 1994 to 2022 in Baiyin City, and methods such as empirical orthogonal function decomposition(EOF), wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall method, and visual estimation fitting line method are used, emphasis was placed on discussing and evaluating the spatial anomaly,periodicity, mutation, and drought risk of precipitation during the crop growth period. The results indicate that the precipitation during the crop growth period decreases from south to north. For the terrain influence, high-value areas are located at the southernmost point of the southern region, which borders the southern region, while the low value area is located in the northern region in a “clamp-shaped” tongue, the spatial anomaly mainly manifests in three forms: consistent type, north-south opposite type, and terrain type. The interannual changes show an increasing trend but not significant in the northern region, while a decreasing trend and significant in the southern region, there are interdecadal cycles of30 a and 10-15 a, both of which are currently in a relatively low period. The pearson-Ⅲ distribution was used to fit the precipitation values of different guarantee rates during the crop growth period in Baiyin City. Based on this, the precipitation during the crop growth period was divided into four zones: available zone, shortage zone,scarce zone, and rare zone, with drought risks of 20%, 35%, 65%, and 90%, respectively.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-09-03
基金项目:中国气象局核心技术发展专项资助项目(YBGJXM2019 05-09)
通信作者:张俊红.E-mail:346917221@qq.com