AN Ran,XIAO Tiangui,YAN Xiaoxi,et al.Analysis of Regional Characteristics of Precipitation in Yunnan Province in the Last 50 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(05):581-588.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.05.010]
近50年云南省降水区域特征分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Regional Characteristics of Precipitation in Yunnan Province in the Last 50 Years
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2024)05-0581-08
- Keywords:
- climate change; precipitation; REOF; EEMD; Yunnan Province
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析云南省降水时空特征,利用云南省115个国家气象站1971-2020年降水资料,运用旋转经验正交函数方法(REOF)对降水变化特征开展空间分区讨论,结合累积距平分析、Mann-Kendall法、Bernaola-Galvan分割算法、滑动t检验、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)、Hurst指数等方法分析各空间型所对应的时间序列,对降水变化趋势、突变时间、变化周期及未来趋势进行讨论。结果表明:(1)近50年来云南降水可分为5个主要区域, 1区为滇中以东区、2区为滇南区、3区为滇西区、4区为滇西北区、5区为滇东北区。(2)云南省5个降水分区均存在有显著的变化周期:总体上看,大部分区域(1、3、4、5区)有显著的准3 a、准6 a的年际尺度变化周期;(3)各分区突变发生时间有所不同,2002、2008、2018年为全部区域均发生突变的主要时间节点;(4)各个空间型降水的主要周期及突变时间有一定差异,但近50年年均降水均呈现减少的变化趋势,其中3区(滇西区)减少最为显著,5个降水分区均在未来呈现出与历史相一致的减少变化趋势。
- Abstract:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in Yunnan Province over the past 50 years,precipitation data from 115 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province from 1971 to 2020. The rotating empirical orthogonal function(REOF)method was employed to examine the spatial patterns of precipitation changes. Various analytical techniques such as cumulative anomaly analysis,Mann-Kendall method,Bernaola-Galvan segmentation algorithm,sliding t-test,set empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),and Hurst index were applied to analyze the time series corresponding to each spatial type. The trend,mutation time,change cycle,and future trends of precipitation were discussed. The results show that:(1)In the past 50 years,precipitation in Yunnan can be divided into five main regions: Zone 1 is to the east of central Yunnan,Zone 2 is to the south of Yunnan,Zone 3 is to the west of Yunnan,Zone 4 is to the northwest of Yunnan,and Zone 5 is to the northeast of Yunnan.(2)There are significant change cycles in all five precipitation zones in Yunnan Province: overall,most regions(1,3,4,and 5)have significant interannual scale change cycles of quasi 3 a and quasi 6 a;(3)The occurrence time of mutations varies among different regions,with 2002,2008,and 2018 being the main time nodes for all regions to experience mutations;(4)There are certain differences in the main cycles and mutation times of various spatial types of precipitation,but the average annual precipitation in the past 50 years has shown a decreasing trend,with the most significant decrease in the three regions(western Yunnan),and the five precipitation regions showing a consistent decreasing trend in the future with history.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-05-06
基金项目:国家自然科学基金集成资助项目(91937301); 云南省重点研发计划资助项目(202203AC100006、202203AC100005),第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK010408)
通信作者:王静.E-mail:837551476@qq.com