DENG Yifan,HE Ke,XIAO Wenxiao.Study on the Probabilistic Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation in Hunan Hengshao Basin based on Poisson Distribution[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(06):761-766.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.06.017]
基于泊松分布的湖南衡邵盆地暴雨概率特征分析
- Title:
- Study on the Probabilistic Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation in Hunan Hengshao Basin based on Poisson Distribution
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2024)06-0761-06
- 分类号:
- P426.61
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析湖南衡邵盆地的暴雨概率特征,利用衡邵盆地地区28个国家气象站41 a(1980-2020年)汛期(4-9月)逐日降水量数据资料,统计出各站年暴雨频次和相应频次发生概率,结合Poisson分布函数,得到基于Poisson分布的暴雨概率模型。通过将理论与实测数据对比分析,除南岳以外,衡邵盆地地区各国家气象站理论与实测数据的相关系数都在0.79～0.98,验证了基于Poisson分布暴雨概率模型的有效性。结果表明,除南岳以外,衡邵盆地地区各国家气象站汛期(4-9月)暴雨概率分布和频次分布都符合Poisson分布模型; 空间分布上,暴雨日数≥3 d的理论概率分布和实测概率分布基本一致,都呈现南北部高、中部低的特征; 时间分布上,暴雨总频次与暴雨日数≥3 d的理论概率的变化趋势基本一致,且都在波动中呈现出明显上升趋势。
- Abstract:
- In order to study and analyze the probabilistic characteristics of heavy precipitation in Hengshao Basin, Hunan Province, daily precipitation data of 28 national meteorological stations in Hengshao Basin during the flood season(April September, 1980-2020)were used to calculate the annual heavy precipitation frequency and corresponding frequency occurrence probability of each station. These are Combined with the Poisson distribution function to obtain a Statistical model of heavy precipitation based on Poisson distribution. By comparative analysis of the theoretical and measured data, except for Nanyue, the correlation coefficient between theoretical and measured data of national meteorological stations in Hengshao Basin is 0.79-0.98, which shows the validity of rainstorm probability model based on Poisson distribution. The research results show that except for Nanyue, the probability distribution and frequency distribution of rainstorms in flood season(April September)of national meteorological stations in the Hengshao basin area conform to the Poisson distribution model; In terms of spatial distribution, the theoretical probability distribution of rainstorm days(3 d)is consistent with the measured probability distribution, which is high in the north and south and low in the middle; In terms of time distribution, the total frequency of heavy precipitation is consistent with the change trend of the theoretical probability of the number of days of rainstorm for 3 days, and both show an obvious upward trend in the fluctuation.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-07-06
基金项目:湖南省气象局2023年创新发展专项(青年专项)资助项目(CXFZ2022-QNZX11)