DING Yuhong,LIU Jinbao,WANG Jiajin,et al.Study on Meteorological Grade Evaluation Model of Forest Fire Risk in Panxi Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(04):550-555.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.04.021]
攀西地区森林火险气象等级评价模型研究
- Title:
- Study on Meteorological Grade Evaluation Model of Forest Fire Risk in Panxi Area
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)04-0550-06
- Keywords:
- Panxi area; forest fire risk; meteorological grade
- 分类号:
- X45
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 攀西地区是四川省森林火灾的重灾区,研究建立适合本地区的森林火险气象等级模型,可以提高森林火险的监测预测能力,为气象防灾减灾提供技术支撑。使用1970-2020年攀西地区21个站的逐日气象观测资料,2008年以来的森林火灾及遥感火点资料,对攀西地区原森林火险天气等级模型进行修订和完善。攀西地区森林火灾主要发生在1-5月,7-10月基本没有火灾发生,森林火灾的次数和过火面积均呈西多东少的空间分布。原模型对4～5级火险等级的评价准确率虚高,而对1～3级火险等级的评价准确率明显偏低。改进后的新模型1-12月低风险日数百分比呈先增加后减少的变化趋势,秋冬季中度以上风险日数在44%～60%,汛期中度风险日数比在10%左右,基本没有高度风险以上出现。新模型对1～3级火险等级的评价准确率大幅提升,4级准确率略有下降,虽然5级准确率下降幅度较大,但这是由于原标准对高风险评价异常偏多导致的。近50年攀西地区高森林火险日数总体呈显著增多的变化趋势。通过修改阈值和增加连续无降水日数项建立了新的攀西地区森林火险气象等级评价模型,新模型与林火灾情和遥感火点情况更加匹配,可以更加准确地反映攀西地区森林火灾的气象风险。
- Abstract:
- Panxi area was the hardest hit area of forest fire in Sichuan Province.Studying and establishing a meteorological-grade model of forest fire risk suitable for this area could improve the monitoring and prediction ability of forest fire risk and provide technical support for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 21 stations in the Panxi area from 1970 to 2020 and the forest fire and remote sensing fire point data since 2008,the original forest fire risk weather grade model in the Panxi area was revised and improved.Forest fires in the Panxi area mainly occurred from January to May,and there was basically no fire from July to October.The frequency and area of forest fires were higher in the West and less in the East.The accuracy of the original model for the evaluation of fire risk grades 4-5 was falsely high,while the accuracy of the evaluation of 1-3 was obviously low.The percentage of low-risk days in the improved new model from January to December showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The number of moderate risk days in autumn and winter was between 44%-60%,and the ratio of moderate risk days in flood season was about 10%.The accuracy of the new model in the evaluation of fire risk levels 1-3 had been greatly improved,and the accuracy of level 4 had decreased slightly.Although the accuracy of level 5 had decreased greatly,this was due to the abnormal excessive high-risk evaluation in the original standard.In the last 50 years,the number of high forest fire risk days in the Panxi area has increased significantly.By modifying the threshold and increasing the continued non-precipitation days,a new meteorological grade evaluation model of forest fire risk in the Panxi area was established.The new model was more matched with forest fire disasters and remote sensing fire points,and could more accurately reflect the meteorological risk of forest fire in the Panxi area.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-05-20
基金项目:四川省重点实验室基金资助项目(SCQXKJYJXZD202 306、SCQXKJYJXMS202212); 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(42205195); 四川省科技厅重点研发计划重大科技专项资助项目(2024YFFK0407)
通信作者:王佳津.E-mail: w_jiajin@163.com