YAN Xiaoqiang,DONG Xuefeng,ZHANG Tao,et al.Evaluating the Impact of a Single Aircraft-Assisted Rain Enhancement Operation in Chengdu through Regional Historical Regression Analysis[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):691-696.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.017]
基于区域历史回归分析法的成都地区一次飞机增雨作业效果检验
- Title:
- Evaluating the Impact of a Single Aircraft-Assisted Rain Enhancement Operation in Chengdu through Regional Historical Regression Analysis
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0691-06
- Keywords:
- aircraft artificial rain enhancement; regional historical regression analysis method; absolute rainfall increase; relative rainfall increase rate
- 分类号:
- P481
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为检验飞机人工增雨作业的科学性,选取1980-2005年成都市人工增雨作业区和对比区地面国家气象站的平均日降水资料作为历史样本,利用区域历史回归分析法对2023年11月11日成都地区秋季一次飞机人工增雨作业过程进行效果检验。结果表明:2023年11月11日成都地区受南支槽前强西南气流影响,具有较适宜的热、动力和过冷层条件,云冰含量较丰富,符合人工增雨作业要求。此次飞机人工增雨作业过程组织实施合理,使用AgI 320 g,播撒高度为4000～6000 m,绝对增雨量1.03 mm,相对增雨率31%,通过α=0.01的显著性水平检验,增雨效果显著。
- Abstract:
- The present study utilised the regional historical regression analysis method to assess the efficacy of an artificial precipitation process in the Chengdu area on 11 November 2023.The analysis encompassed the period from 1980 to 2005,encompassing ground national meteorological station data from the operation area and the comparative area of Chengdu.The results show that,based on radiosonde,radar,and reanalysis data,it can be concluded that on November 11,2023,the Chengdu area was affected by strong southwest airflow in front of the southern trough,and had suitable thermal,dynamic,and supercooling conditions.The cloud ice content was found to be substantial,satisfying the criteria for artificial precipitation enhancement initiatives.The planning and execution of the aircraft-based precipitation augmentation effort were methodologically sound,involving the dispersal of 320 grams of silver iodide at altitudes ranging from 4000 to 6000 meters.The operation resulted in an absolute increase in rainfall of 1.03 millimeters,corresponding to a relative enhancement rate of 31%.Statistical significance testing confirms that the impact of the aircraft-assisted precipitation enhancement is statistically significant.
参考文献/References:
[1] 余益祺,肖天贵.成都平原经济区气候特征分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究,2021,41(2):143-149.
[2] WU Xianghua,NIU Shengjie,JIN Dezhen,et al.Influence of natural rainfall variability on the evaluation of artficial precipition enhancement[J]. Sci.China Earth Sci.2015,58(6):906-914.
[3] 李书严,李伟,赵习方.北京市人工增雨效果评估方法分析[J]. 气象科技,2006,34(3):296-300.
[4] 房彬,肖辉,王振会,等.聚类分析在人工增雨效果检验中的应用[J]. 大气科学学报,2007,28(6):739-745.
[5] 唐仁茂,袁正腾,向玉春,等.依据雷达回波自动选取对比云进行人工增雨效果检验的方法[J]. 气象,2010(4):96-100.
[6] 张瑞波,刘丽君,钟小英,等.利用新一代天气雷达资料分析飞机人工增雨作业效果[J]. 气象,2010(2):70-75.
[7] GABRIEL K R.The Israeli artificial rainfall simulation ex-periment.statistical evaluation for the period 1961-1965[C]. Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability.Berkeley:University of California Press,1967:91-113.
[8] Gagina,Neumann J.The second Israeli randomized cloud seeding experiment:evaluation of the results[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology,1981,20(11):1301-1311.
[9] 安英玉,韩书新,牛忠清.飞机人工增雨作业效果统计检验方法对比分析[J]. 黑龙江气象,2024,41(1):32-34.
[10] 张海燕,刘昭武.山东无棣人工增雨效果的统计检验[J]. 海洋气象学报,2024,44(3):115-121.
[11] 徐朝晖.鹤壁市一次人工增雨效果检验及评估[J]. 河南科技,2019(13):154-156.
[12] 王婉,姚展予.2006年北京市人工增雨作业效果统计分析[J]. 高原气象,2009,28(1):195-202.
[13] 翟晴飞,敖雪,袁健,等.基于区域历史回归法的辽宁地区一次人工增雨作业效果检验[J]. 气象与环境学报,2017,33(6):96-104.
[14] 常倬林,党张利,贾乐,等.宁夏六盘山区一次人工增雨条件观测分析和效果评估[J]. 气象研究与应用,2022,43(3):26-30.
[15] 王婉,姚展予.非随机化人工增雨作业功效数值分析和效果评估.气候与环境研究,2012,17(6):855-861.
[16] 李大山.人工影响天气现状与展望[M]. 北京:气象出版社,2001.
[17] 岳治国,余兴,刘贵华,等.一次飞机冷云增雨作业效果检验[J]. 气象学报,2021,79(5):853-863.
[18] 刘卫国,陶玥,周毓荃,等.基于飞机真实轨迹的一次层状云催化的增雨效果及其作用机制的模拟研究[J]. 气象学报,2021,79(2):340-358.
[19] 李琼,高沁,唐林,等.湖南省夏秋季一次典型积层混合云系飞机人工增雨作业分析[J]. 湖北农业科学,2020,59(22):59-65.
[20] 林丹,王维佳.四川盆地初夏一次飞机增雨作业的效果检验[J]. 成都信息工程学院学报,2020,35(1):117-122.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-12-27