XIE Feng,XIA Zhiye,LU Xiaoning,et al.Inversion of Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions in Chengdu-Chongqing Area based on WRF-STILT Model[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):739-744.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.024]
基于WRF-STILT模型的成渝地区人为碳排放量反演
- Title:
- Inversion of Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions in Chengdu-Chongqing Area based on WRF-STILT Model
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0739-06
- Keywords:
- WRF-STILT; Chengdu Chongqing economic circle; CO2 emissions; CO2 concentration; Bayesian inversion
- 分类号:
- X321
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 城市尺度进行准确的人为碳排放估算,是制定节能减排政策和实现“双碳”目标的关键。成渝经济圈拥有大的人口密度、坚实的产业基础、出色的创新能力、广大的市场空间及高程度的开放性。为估算成渝地区的人为碳排放量,利用2020年5-8月Carbon Tracker全球大气CO2模型估算的CO2浓度数据,结合该数据与WRF-STILT模型及GRACED全球格网化日人为CO2排放数据集,采用“自上而下”的贝叶斯比例因子法限制人为CO2排放通量,并与MEIC中国多尺度排放清单模型同时期CO2通量数据比较。结果表明,限制后的GRACED与MEIC排放数据的误差从0.0317 mg/(m2·s-1)降到0.0193 mg/(m2·s-1)。总的来说,2020年成渝地区夏季人为排放总量呈先上升后下降再上升的趋势,工业排放与电力行业排放随着时间有明显的波动,而民用、地面交通及航运排放较稳定。就成渝地区人为碳排放而言,电力行业与工业排放是人为碳排放的两个主要来源。
- Abstract:
- Accurate estimation of anthropogenic carbon emissions at the city scale is the key to making energy conservation and emission reduction policies and realizing the goal of “double carbon”.Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is the most densely populated area with the strongest industrial base and the highest degree of openness in southwest China.To estimate anthropogenic Carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,this study used CO2 concentration data estimated by the Carbon Tracker global atmospheric CO2 model from May 2020 to August 2020,combined this data with WRF-STILT model and GRACED global grid day anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission dataset.A “top-down” Bayesian scale factor method was used to limit anthropogenic CO2 emission fluxes,and compared with the CO2 fluxes of the MEIC China multi-scale emission inventory model over the same period.The results showed that the error of GRACED and MEIC emission data after restriction was reduced from0.0317 mg/(m2·s-1)to0.0193 mg/(m2·s-1).In general,the total anthropogenic emissions in the summer of 2020 in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle showed a trend of first increasing,then decreasing,and then increasing,and the emissions of the industrial sector and the power sector fluctuated significantly over time.However,emissions from civil,ground transportation and shipping showed a relatively stable phenomenon.In terms of different sectoral CO2 emission categories,power and industrial emissions are the two most important sources of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-03-04
基金项目:国家统计科学研究重点资助项目(2023LZ033); 四川省社科“十四五”规划资助项目(SC22B155); 四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0383); 四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2023NSFSC0745); 全国大学生创新训练计划资助项目(202310621001)
通信作者:夏志业.E-mail:xiazhiye@cuit.edu.cn