CAO Yang,MA Pan,WANG Xinzi,et al.The Associations between Meteorological Conditions and Deaths for Respiratory and Circulatory Diseases[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(01):123-128.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.01.017]
呼吸与循环系统疾病死亡与气象条件的关联性
- Title:
- The Associations between Meteorological Conditions and Deaths for Respiratory and Circulatory Diseases
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2020)01-0123-06
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; medical meteorology; meteorological factors; respiratory system; circulatory system
- 分类号:
- P49
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探究成都市双流区死亡人数与各个气象因子的关系,选取2010年1月1日-2016年12月31日成都市双流区呼吸、循环系统疾病死亡人数资料及同期的气象观测数据,通过对数据进行描述性统计、频率分布处理、Spearman关联性分析,并采用多元逐步回归预测模型建立了死亡人数的回归方程。研究结果表明:一年内循环、呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬季最多,夏季最少; 在11月至次年3月持续偏多; 在8-9月也存在死亡小高峰,这与季节性变化和高温有关。此外,两类疾病死亡人数都呈现男性多于女性的特点。相关分析结果显示,在春、夏季,呼吸系统疾病与气象要素的关联性强于循环系统疾病; 在秋、冬季节,两类疾病死亡人数都与气温和湿度有显著的相关性。分季节建立死亡人数的回归模型发现,除夏季循环系统死亡人数的回归方程不显著外,其他均通过了显著性检验(P<0.05)。
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the relationship between death toll and meteorological factors in Shuangliu District of Chengdu City, the death toll data of respiratory and circulatory diseases and the meteorological observation data of the same period in Shuangliu District of Chengdu City from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016 were selected. Descriptive statistics, frequency distribution processing and Spearman correlation analysis of the data were carried out and then regression equation of the number of deaths was established by multiple stepwise regression prediction model. The results show that the death toll of circulatory and respiratory diseases is the highest in winter and the lowest in summer, and it persists enduringly from November to March of the following year. There is also a small death peak in August to September, which is related to seasonal variation and high temperature. In addition, the number of deaths from both types of diseases is more in males than in females. Relevant analysis showed that, the correlation between respiratory diseases and meteorological factors was stronger than that of circulatory diseases; in autumn and winter, the death toll of both diseases was significantly correlated with temperature and humidity in autumn and winter. A seasonal regression model for the number of deaths was established. It was found that the regression equation for the number of deaths all passed the significant test(;0.05)except for the regression equationin summer.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-06-19基金项目:国家重大研究计划资助项目(91644226); 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602001)