ZHANG Tao,WEI Wei,QING Pingchu,et al.Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Chengdu in July and August[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(03):299-305.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.010]
成都盛夏短时强降水特征统计分析
- Title:
- Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in Chengdu in July and August
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2020)03-0299-07
- 分类号:
- P458
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 利用成都市2017-2019年7-8月国家级自动站逐小时降雨量和常规探空分析了盛夏典型短时强降水过程的环流形势特征,建立了4种短时强降水概念模型。高空辐散、切变线和风向风速辐合、500 hPa负变温、低空急流、500 hPa负变高和地面中尺度辐合线是有利于短时强降水发生的大、中尺度影响系统。通过物理量分析可知,短时强降水发生在热力不稳定层结、中低层水汽充沛、垂直风切变弱、抬升凝结高度低和暖云层厚度较厚的环境中。绝大多数短时强降水回波(≥90%)为低质心的块状回波,平均持续时间接近30 min,移速以20～31 km·h-1为主。在对流层低层,持续时间达3～12 h且风向较一致的显著偏南气流或偏东气流对短时强降水发生有较好的警示作用。700 hPa偏南或偏北风对强降水回波的移动方向具有较好指示意义。
- Abstract:
- Hourly rainfall data obtained from 18 national meteorological stations and radiosonde data in July and August from 2017 to 2019 are used to analyze the environmental background and characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall processes that happened in Chengdu. Four different types of conceptual models are proposed. Results indicate that short-time heavy rainfall processes are mostly happened under the synthetic influence of the large-scale and mesoscale systems, including the upper divergence, shear line, wind convergence,500 hPa temperature decline, low-level jet,500 hPa geopotential height decrement, and ground mesoscale convergence lines. By using the statistical analysis of physical parameters, conclusions can be drawn as follows. When short-time heavy rainfall occours, the thermal stratification is unstable and there are abundant atmospheric water vapor in middle and lower level, thick warm cloud layer, low lifting condensation level, weak vertical wind shear between 0 and 6 km. Most of radar echoes of short-time heavy rainfall(≥90%)have low centroid, for which the average duration is near 30 min and the moving speed is mainly 20-31 km·h-1.Significant southerly or easterly wind with relatively consistent direction in lower troposphere which always lasts 3 to 12 hours can often be a good indicator of short-time heavy rainfall. Similarly, southerly or northerly wind on700 hPa can denote the moving direction of the strong radar echo in short-time heavy rainfall.
参考文献/References:
[1] Doswell C A,Maddox R A,Brooks H E III,et al.Flash flood forecasting:an ingredients-based methodology[J].Wea Forecasting,1996,11:560-581.
[2] Davis R S.Flash flood forecast and detection methods:Severe Convective Storms[J].Meteor Monogr,2001,28:481-526.
[3] 李建,宇如聪,孙溦.从小时尺度考察中国中东部极端降水的持续性和季节特征[J].气象学报,2013,71(4):652-659.
[4] 俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(2):311-337.
[5] 樊李苗,俞小鼎.中国强对流天气的若干环境参数特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):156-165.
[6] Yu Rucong,Li Jian,Yuan Weihua,et al.Changes in characteristics of late-summer precipitation over eastern China in the past 40 years revealed by hourly precipitation over eastern China in the past 40 years revealed by houly precipitation data[J].J Climate,2010,23(12):3390-3396.
[7] 姚莉,李小泉,张立梅.我国1小时雨强的时空分布特征[J].气象,2009,35(2):80-87.
[8] 陈炯,郑永光,张小玲,等.中国暖季短时强降水分布和日变化特征及其与中尺度对流系统日变化关系分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):367-382.
[9] 唐红玉,顾建峰,俞胜宾,等.西南地区降水日变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):376-384.
[10] 王佳津,陈朝平,龙柯吉,等.四川区域暴雨过程中短时强降水时空分布特征[J].高原山地气象,2015,35(1):16-20.
[11] 毛冬艳,曹艳察,朱文剑,等.西南地区短时强降水的气候特征分析[J].气象,2018,44(8):1042-1050.
[12] 陈贝,高文良,周学云.四川盆地西南部短时强降水天气特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):14-20.
[13] 吕劲文,姚日升,涂小萍,等.浙江省6-9月午后短时强降水空间分布特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2019,38(4):320-328.
[14] 李强,张亚萍,何跃,等.川渝盆地主汛期短时强降水事件日变化特征研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(7):144-152.
[15] 应冬梅,许爱华,黄祖辉.江西冰雹、大风与短时强降水的多普勒雷达产品的对比分析[J].气象,2007,33(3):48-55.
[16] 李德俊,唐仁茂,熊守权,等.强冰雹和短时强降水天气雷达特征及临近预警[J].气象,2011,37(4):474-480.
[17] 郝莹,姚叶青,郑媛媛,等.短时强降水的多尺度分析及临近预警[J].气象,2012,38(8):903-912.
[18] 段鹤,夏文梅,苏晓力,等.短时强降水特征统计及临近预警[J].气象,2014,40(10):1194-1206.
[19] 牛淑贞,张一平,梁俊平,等.郑州市两次短时强降水过程的环境条件和中尺度特征对比[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(2):138-147.
[20] 屠妮妮,陈静,何光碧.高原东侧一次大暴雨过程动力热力特征分析[J].高原气象,2008,27(4):796-806.
[21] 井喜,李栋梁,李明娟.青藏高原东北侧一次突发性大暴雨环境场综合分析[J].高原气象,2008,27(1):46-57.
[22] 四川省气象局.四川天气预报手册[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,2014:40-42.
相似文献/References:
[1]邵梦琪,甘维金,向卫国.2017年初一次四川重污染过程气象条件综合分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):212.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.017]
SHAO Meng-qi,GAN Wei-jin,XIANG Wei-guo.Comprehensive Analysis of Meteorological Conditions inHeavy Pollution Process in Sichuan in Early 2017[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):212.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.017]
[2]王璐思,王 伟.1951-2011年西南地区春旱成因初步分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(06):718.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.06.018]
WANG Lu-si,WANG Wei.Analysis of Spring Drought in the Southwestern China During 1951-2011[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):718.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.06.018]
[3]王 皓,韩 威,范广洲,等.2015年6.2南京暴雨分析及其数值模拟[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(增刊2):53.
[4]徐栋夫 Symbol`@@,曹萍萍.2016年7月21日-22日成都地区短时强降水分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(增刊1):17.
[5]殷美祥,曾钦文,罗瑞婷,等.2012年南海夏季风特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(03):328.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.03.015]
YIN Mei-xiang,ZENG Qin-wen,LUO Rui-ting,et al.Analysis of Characteristics of Summer Monsoon over South China Sea in 2012[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(03):328.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.03.015]
[6]陈汶江,王 伟.2016年14号台风“莫兰蒂”特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(04):435.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.04.017]
CHEN Wenjiang,WANG Wei.Analysis on the Characteristics of the Fourteenth Typhoon "Morandi" in 2016[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(03):435.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.04.017]
[7]王泽宇,王 伟.2017年长江中下游地区一次持续性异常降水过程分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(02):170.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.008]
WANG Zeyu,WANG Wei.Analysis of one Persistent Abnormal Precipitation Process over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in 2017[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(03):170.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.008]
[8]周 涛,许 敏,王清川,等.基于GPS水汽观测网的一次冀中平原短时强降水的水汽特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2024,39(03):313.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.03.008]
ZHOU Tao,XU Min,WANG Qingchuan,et al.Water Vapor Characteristics of a Short-time Heavy Precipitation in Warm Region based on GPS/PWV[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(03):313.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.03.008]
[9]朱 莉,许彦艳,许迎杰,等.基于华东区域模式云南短时强降水客观预报技术研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2024,39(04):464.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.04.011]
ZHU Li,XU Yanyan,XU Yingjie,et al.Research on Objective Forecasting Technology of Short-term Strong Precipitation in Yunnan based on the East China Regional Model[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(03):464.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.04.011]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-03-28 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41705008); 中国气象局大气探测重点开放实验室开放课题资助项目(KLAS201713)