JIA Hejia,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Characteristics of Dry-wet Evolution and its Response to ENSO Events in Southwestern China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(04):451-459.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.015]
西南地区干湿演变特征及其对ENSO事件的响应
- Title:
- Characteristics of Dry-wet Evolution and its Response to ENSO Events in Southwestern China
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2021)04-0451-09
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; meteorological disaster; SPEI; ENSO events; EOF analysis; dry-wet evolutioncharacteristics; Southwest China
- 分类号:
- P461
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 针对近年来西南地区旱涝灾害频发的问题,利用西南地区1968-2017年129个气象站点逐日气象资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验、EOF分析、相关和小波周期分析等方法,不仅对近50年西南地区干湿演变特征进行时空分析,而且讨论了干湿对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明,近50年西南地区主要呈现干旱化趋势,且具有明显的周期变化,在20世纪末到21世纪初有明显转折点; 极润、重润和轻旱各季节发生频率随时间尺度增加而减小,秋冬季轻润和春冬季重旱发生频率随时间尺度增加而增加,极旱发生频率在各季节随时间尺度增加而增加; 西藏西部、云南南部及贵州北部呈现干旱化,西藏东部、四川北部及云南中部呈现湿润化; 各季节干湿有明显的空间差异; ENSO事件对西南地区干湿影响具有滞后性,正影响随滞后时间由东向西移动,在滞后3个月时最显著。
- Abstract:
- Aimed at the problem of drought and flood disasters in southwest China in recent years,based on the daily meteorological data of 129 meteorological stations in Southwestern China from 1968 to 2017, using Mann-Kendall test, EOF analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet periodic analysis, a spatiotemporal analysis of the characteristics of dry-wet evolution in Southwestern China in recent 50 years was carried out, and the response of dryness-wetness to ENSO events was also discussed. The results show that in the past 50 years, the southwest region mainly showed the trend of drought and had obvious periodic changes, as well as there was an obvious turning point at the end of the 20 th century and the beginning of the 21st century. The frequency of extreme moisture, heavy moisture and light drought decreased with the increase of time scale in each season; the frequency of light moisture in autumn and winter and heavy drought in spring and winter increased with the increase of time scale; the frequency of extreme drought increased with the increase of time scale in each season. The western Tibet, southern Yunnan and northern Guizhou showed aridity, while eastern Tibet, northern Sichuan and central Yunnan showed humidification. There are obvious spatial differences in the dryness and wetness of each season. ENSO events had a lag effect on the dryness and wetness in Southwestern China, and the positive effect moves from east to west with the increase of lag time, and the most significant of thatis at the lag time of 3 months.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-09-07
基金项目:科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助子项目(2019QZKK0105); 风云三号(02批)气象卫星地面应用系统工程资助子项目(ZQC-J19193)