ZOU Dequan,ZOU Chengli,SONG Xinmin,et al.Characteristics of the Number of Times and Probability of Rainstorm and Torrential Rain in Zunyi based on Poisson Distribution[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(06):716-720.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.06.015]
基于泊松分布的遵义市暴雨、大暴雨次数概率特征
- Title:
- Characteristics of the Number of Times and Probability of Rainstorm and Torrential Rain in Zunyi based on Poisson Distribution
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2022)06-0716-05
- Keywords:
- atmospheric science; rainstorm; Zunyi city; Poisson distribution; probability characteristics
- 分类号:
- P426.61
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为得到遵义市年暴雨和大暴雨次数概率特征,利用遵义市行政辖区内12个国家气象站1961-2020年逐日降水数据,统计出各站暴雨、大暴雨频次,结合Poisson分布函数,得到年暴雨、大暴雨频次分布模型,计算理论年频次。结果表明:遵义市整体区域年大暴雨次数、各县市区暴雨次数都符合Poisson分布模式; 遵义市整体区域每年≥3次以上大暴雨的概率为0.62; 各县市区每年≥2次以上暴雨的概率在0.56～0.77,概率总趋势表现出自东向西减小,但西北部赤水、习水例外。东部、西北部概率较大,因而暴雨灾害风险较大; 中部概率相对较小,因而暴雨灾害风险相对较小。利用Poisson分布模式,还可以用于计算遵义市(各县市区)大于研究时段长度(60 a)出现的最大次数以上的大暴雨(暴雨)次数概率,对制定暴雨洪涝灾害防御规划、应急管理工作具有实际意义。
- Abstract:
- To obtain the characteristics of the number of times and probability of rainstorm and torrential rain in Zunyi, the daily precipitation data of 12 national meteorological stations in the administrative jurisdiction of Zunyi from 1961 to 2020 was used for statistics of the frequency of rainstorms and torrential rain of each station. Combined with the Poisson distribution function, the annual frequency distribution model of rainstorms and torrential rain was obtained and the theoretical annual frequency was calculated on this basis. The results showed that the annual number of torrential rain in the whole area of Zunyi and the number of counties and the urban area both complied with the Poisson distribution model. The probability of torrential rain equal to or greater than 3 times/a in the whole area of Zunyi was 0.62. The probability of rainstorms equal to or greater than 2 times/a in counties and the urban area was 0.56-0.77. The general trend of the probability was that it decreased from the east to the west, except Chishui and Xishui in the northwest. The probability in the east and northwest was relatively high. Therefore, the risk of the rainstorm disaster was relatively greater. The probability in the middle was relatively low, so the risk of the rainstorm disaster was relatively small. The Poisson distribution model established in this study can be also used to calculate the number of times and probability of torrential rain(rainstorm)greater than the maximum number of occurrences longer than the study phase(60 a)in Zunyi(all areas). It has practical significance for the development of the prevention plan of rainstorm and flood disaster and emergency management work.
参考文献/References:
[1] 王昊,姜超,王鹤松,等.中国西南部区域雨季极端降水指数时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2019,40(1):1-14.
[2] 张存杰,黄大鹏,刘昌义,等.IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):246-250.
[3] 肖蕾,杜小玲,武正敏,等.贵州省短时强降水时空分布特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2021,40(4):383-392.
[4] 邹德全,邹承立,田洪进,等.基于信息扩散技术的遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J/OL].安全与环境学报:1-11[2021-09-16].https://doi.org/10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.0343.
[5] 邹德全,邹承立,田洪进,等.1960-2019年遵义市降水对2类ENSO的响应特征[J].现代农业科技,2020(24):167-171.
[6] 肖蕾,郭晓超,万雪丽,等.习水河流域两次局地特大暴雨成因对比分析[J].贵州气象,2017,41(1):45-52.
[7] 肖蕾,郭晓超,姚正兰,等.习水2014年8月11日特大暴雨天气过程的成因分析[J].贵州气象,2015,39(5):19-23.
[8] 丁裕国,申红艳,江志红,等.气候概率分布理论及其应用新进展[J].气象科技,2009,37(3):257-262.
[9] 王颖,刘晓冉,程炳岩,等.广义极值分布在重庆短历时极值降水中的应用[J].气象,2019,45(6):820-830.
[10] 于新文,丁裕国.中国东部地区暴雨的概率特征——基于泊松分布的统计模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2006(4):13-18.
[11] 吕忠东,邹阳,李一波.基于泊松分布的川东暴雨概率特征分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2010,25(5):531-535.
[12] 任至涵,倪雪,倪长健,等.基于泊松分布的成都经济区暴雨概率特征研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(1):80-85.
[13] 周其龙,梁洪运,刘敏,等.基于概率分布模型的暴雨研究[J].科技资讯,2013(9):1-3.
相似文献/References:
[1]梁家豪,陈科艺,李 毓.WRF模式中积云对流参数化方案对南海土台风“Ryan”模拟的影响研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):162.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.010]
LIANG Jiahao,CHEN Keyi,LI Yu.The Impact of Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes of the WRF
Model on the Typhoon “Ryan” Simulation over the South China Sea[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):162.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.010]
[2]廖 琦,肖天贵,金荣花.东亚副热带西风急流年际变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):68.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.013]
LIAO Qi,XIAO Tian-Gui,JIN Rong Hua.Analysis on Inter-annual Variation of EastAsian Subtropical Westerly Jet[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):68.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.013]
[3]高清泉,韩瑽琤,肖天贵.微波通信链路监测降水试验及可行性探究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):197.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.015]
GAO Qing-quan,HAN Cong-cheng,XIAO Tian-gui.Feasibility Study of Microwave CommunicationLink for Rainfall Monitoring Purposes[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):197.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.015]
[4]黄 瑶,肖天贵,刘思齐.2016年7月四川持续性强降水的中尺度滤波分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):307.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.014]
HUANG Yao,XIAO Tian-gui,LIU Si-qi.Mesoscale Filtering Analysis of Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Sichuan in July 2016[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):307.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.014]
[5]李雅婷,苏德斌,孙晓光,等.四川盆地风廓线雷达大气折射率结构常数特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(04):375.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.005]
LI Ya-ting,SU De-bin,SUN Xiao-guang,et al.Characteristic Analysis of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index of
Sichuan Basin based on Wind Profiler Radar[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):375.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.005]
[6]石 宇,肖子牛,朱克云.夏季角动量输送变化与中国东部降水的关系[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(04):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.016]
SHI Yu,XIAO Zi-niu,ZHU Ke-yun.Relationship between Angular Momentum Transportand Precipitation in Eastern China in Summer[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.016]
[7]于佳含,巩远发,毛文书.2017年7月吉林永吉两次极端强降水过程的对比分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(03):287.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.014]
YU Jiahan,GONG Yuanfa,MAO Wenshu.Comparative Analysis on Two Extreme Severe Precipitation Events in Yongji County, Jilin Province in July 2017[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):287.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.014]
[8]宾 昕,程志刚,王俊锋,等.近17a秦巴山区NDVI季节变化差异及其海拔依赖性特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(03):302.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.016]
BIN Xin,CHENG Zhigang,WANG Junfeng,et al.Seasonal Variation of NDVI and Altitude Dependent Characteristics in Qinling-Daba Mountains in Recent 17 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):302.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.016]
[9]金凡琦,程志刚,靳立亚,等.成渝城市群热环境效应与植被覆盖度关系研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(03):308.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.017]
JIN Fanqi,CHENG Zhigang,JIN Liya,et al.Study on the Relationship between Thermal Environment Effect and Vegetation Coverage in Chengyu Urban Agglomeration[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):308.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.017]
[10]吴珍珍,刘海文,潘丽丽.2011年8月4-5日四川盆地双核西南低涡
及其带来的降水天气分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(06):681.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.06.014]
WU Zhen-zhen,LIU Hai-wen,PAN Li-li.Analysis of a Binary Southwest Vortex and its Precipitation
over the Sichuan Basin on 4-5 August 2011[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):681.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.06.014]
[11]蔺邹兴,华 维,范广洲,等.一次东移型西南低涡引发的强降水诊断分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(04):384.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.04.011]
LIN Zouxing,HUA Wei,FAN Guangzhou,et al.A Diagnostic Analysis of the Heavy Precipitation
Caused by Eastward Shift of Southwest Vortex[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):384.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.04.011]
[12]赵胜男,王 磊,李谢辉,等.一次南京特大暴雨的数值模拟及Q矢量诊断[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(06):678.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.06.015]
ZHAO Shengnan,WANG Lei,LI Xiehui,et al.Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rain in Nanjing[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(06):678.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.06.015]
[13]任至涵,倪 雪,倪长健,等.基于泊松分布的成都经济区暴雨概率特征研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(01):80.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.01.013]
REN Zhihan,NI Xue,NI Changjian,et al.Study on the Probabilistic Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation of Chengdu Economic Zone based on Poisson Distribution[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(06):80.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.01.013]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-10-22