HE Peihong,HU Qin.Evaluation and Future Projection of CMIP6 Model’s Ability to Simulate Extreme Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2024,39(01):81-92.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.01.013]
CMIP6模式对青藏高原极端温度的模拟能力评估及其未来预估
- Title:
- Evaluation and Future Projection of CMIP6 Model’s Ability to Simulate Extreme Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2024)01-0081-12
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探究新一代国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)气候模式对青藏高原未来极端温度的模拟能力,使用1995-2014年CMIP6历史模拟实验数据和观测数据CN05.1,通过对年频次及时间空间分布的对比分析,评估8个全球气候模式对青藏高原极端高温和极端低温2个气象要素的模拟性能,并对未来在不同排放情景下极端温度事件演变趋势进行预估。结果表明,尽管所选模式模拟能力有差异,但都能合理地再现青藏高原极端高温和极端低温西部冷、东部暖的分布特征; 预估结果指出未来高原极端高温事件出现的概率会增大,极端低温事件将会减少。极端温度有显著上升趋势,整体上极端低温的增温趋势比极端高温更明显,并在未来共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic path, SSP)SSP5～8.5高排放情境下趋势更剧烈。未来极端气温事件空间分布差异变得更加显著,藏北高原中西部和柴达木盆地有明显增温趋势,而藏南地区变化不显著。
- Abstract:
- With the release of the climate model of the sixth phase of the New Generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), in order to timely evaluate the simulation capability of the new model for future temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau, this paper makes an experiment based on it. This experiment uses the historical simulation outputs from 1995 to 2014 and the observation data CN05.1, and compares the annual frequency and the spatial distribution to evaluate the simulation performance of eight global climate models for the Tibetan Plateau, and simulate performance of the eight GCMs for the two meteorological elements of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that, despite the differences in the simulation capabilities of the selected models, all of them can reasonably reproduce the distribution characteristics of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature on the Tibetan Plateau of the cold west and warm east pattern. The predicted results shows an increase of probability of extreme high temperature events on the plateau and a decrease of extreme low temperature events in the future. There is a significant upward trend of extreme temperature, and the overall warming trend of extreme low temperature is more obvious than extreme high temperature, and it is more intense under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The differences in spatial distribution become more significant, with a significant warming trend predicted for the central and western Tibetan plateau and the Qaidam Basin, and insignificant changes in southern Tibet.
参考文献/References:
[1] Stocker,Thomas F.Climate change 2013 the physical science basis:Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].United Kingdom and New York,N Y,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013:1535.
[2] 周天军,邹立维,陈晓龙.第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)评述[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(5):445-456.
[3] 胡芩,姜大膀,范广洲.CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):924-938.
[4] 张珂铭,范广洲.CMIP5模式对青藏高原地表温度的模拟与预估[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(1):80-89.
[5] Luo N,GuoY,Gao Z B,et al.Assessment of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance for extreme temperature in China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2020,13(6):589-597.
[6] 张佳怡,伦玉蕊,刘浏,等.CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2022,58(1):77-89.
[7] 蒋文好,陈活泼.CMIP6模式对亚洲中高纬区极端温度变化的模拟及预估[J].大气科学学报,2021,44(4):592-603.
[8] 邢晨辉.四川区域CMIP6模式模拟能力评估[J].自然科学,2021,9(1):121-131.
[9] ChenX L,Liu Y M,Wu G X.Understanding the surface temperature cold bias in CMIP5 AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 34(12): 1447-1460.
[10] 孟雅丽,段克勤,尚溦,等.基于CMIP6模式数据的1961-2100年青藏高原地表气温时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2022(1):24-33.
[11] 王慧,张璐,石兴东,等.2000年后青藏高原区域气候的一些新变化[J].地球科学进展,2021,36(8):785-796.
[12] 吴国雄,段安民,张雪芹,等.青藏高原极端天气气候变化及其环境效应[J].自然杂志,2013,35(3):167-171.
[13] 高学杰.中国地区极端事件预估研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):162-166.
[14] Zhang X B, Alexander L, Hegerl G C, et al. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change,2011,2(6):851-870.
[15] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:98-99.
[16] Guo D L,Wang H J.Simulation of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions on the Tibetan Plateau,1981-2010[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2013,118(11):5216-5230.
[17] 游庆龙,康世昌,李剑东,等.青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题[J].冰川冻土,2021,43(3):885-901.
相似文献/References:
[1]孙世杰,张小玲,樊 晋.高温背景下城市下垫面扩张对于成都市热岛效应的数值试验[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(03):358.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.03.016]
SUN Shijie,ZHANG Xiaoling,FAN Jin.Numerical Simulation of the Effect of Urbanization on Heat Island Effect underExtreme-High-Temperature Background in Chengdu[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(01):358.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.03.016]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-12-01
基金项目:第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK 0102); 四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2022NSFSC1092)