LUO Ruiting,LIU Xuanzhou,YIN Meixiang,et al.Assessment of the Simulation Results of the Microphysical Structure of Typhoon Cloud Systems in Western Guangdong by Two Models[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(02):226-231.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.02.014]
两种模式对粤西台风云系微物理结构模拟结果的检验评估
- Title:
- Assessment of the Simulation Results of the Microphysical Structure of Typhoon Cloud Systems in Western Guangdong by Two Models
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)02-0226-06
- Keywords:
- numerical simulation; forecast verification; typhoon cloud system; microphysical structure; model
- 分类号:
- P426
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为提高人工影响天气模式产品释用技巧,基于探空、S波段双偏振雷达、卫星和地面观测等多源数据资料,以粤西一次典型台风云系为例,对CMA-GD和CPEFS模式模拟降水云系的水平、垂直结构和云微物理结构的效果进行对比检验。结果表明:(1)对台风云系发展演变的模拟,CMA-GD模式相较于CPEFS模式模拟回波强度和回波移入时间与实况偏差较小;(2)对云系宏观参量的模拟,CMA-GD模式模拟广东地区云顶高度和垂直累积液态水含量较实况偏低,CPEFS模式则偏高;(3)对云系垂直结构的模拟,两种模式对零度层的预报比实况偏高200～300 m,液态水分布接近实况,过冷水分布高度偏高,CMA-GD模式模拟垂直风向和风速更接近实况;(4)对云系微观结构的模拟,CMA-GD和CPEFS模式对雨水、霰混合比模拟明显偏小,CMA-GD模式对雪混合比模拟较接近实况,而CPEFS模式模拟云层较深厚,雨水主要来自高层冰晶、雪、霰等冰相粒子的融化和部分云水的相互转化。
- Abstract:
- To enhance the application techniques of cloud model products for weather modification, this study utilizes a variety of data sources including radiosonde, S-band dual-polarization weather radar, satellite and ground-based observations. Focusing on a typhoon cloud system in western Guangdong, it conducts a comparative analysis of the simulation capabilities of the CMA-GD and CPEFS cloud models in terms of the horizontal and vertical physical structures, as well as the microphysical properties of the precipitation clouds.The results indicate that:(1)In simulating the development and evolution of the typhoon’s cloud system, the CMA-GD model demonstrates smaller deviations in radar echo intensity and arrival time compared to the CPEFS model;(2)For simulating macro parameters of cloud systems, the CMA-GD model shows that the cloud top height in Guangdong is lower, the vertically accumulated liquid water content is lower,whereas the CPEFS model overestimates these values;(3)In simulating the vertical structure of cloud systems, both models’predictions for the zero temperature layer was 200-300 m higher than observed,the distribution of liquid water is close to the actual values, and the distribution of supercooled water is higher than the actual values. The CMA-GD model’s predictions for vertical wind direction and speed were more accurate;(4)For simulating the microstructure of cloud systems, both the CMA-GD and CPEFS cloud models significantly underestimated the mixing ratio between rainwater and graupel. The CMA-GD cloud model was closer to the observed snow mixing ratios, whereas the CPEFS cloud model overestimated them. The CMA-GD model simulated deeper snow layers with less graupel, resulting in less transformation into rainwater. Conversely, the CPEFS model simulated deeper cloud layers, with rainwater primarily derived from the melting of high-level ice crystals, snow, and graupel, and from the transformation of some cloud water.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-09-05
基金项目:广东省气象局科技资助项目(GRMC2022LM02、GRMC 2023M03)
通信作者:殷美祥.E-mail:646343261@qq.com