NIU Jinlong,HUANG Chuhui,HUA Wei,et al.Evaluation and Application of Mesoscale Model in the Chengdu FISU World University Games[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(04):533-541.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.04.019]
成都大运会期间中尺度数值预报模式性能评估及产品应用
- Title:
- Evaluation and Application of Mesoscale Model in the Chengdu FISU World University Games
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)04-0533-09
- 关键词:
- CMA-MESOv6.0模式; 成都大运会; 开幕式; 闭幕式
- 分类号:
- P458.3
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为更好地评估CMA-MESOv6.0模式预报产品的性能和应用,利用CMA-MESOv6.0模式预报产品及成都地区自动站资料,采用主客观相结合的办法,对成都大运会筹备期间两次区域性暴雨(20230712)/大暴雨(20230713)过程进行分析,并对成都大运会开幕式、闭幕式期间的降水、温度和风进行检验。结果表明:24小时降水预报形态与实况接近,区域性暴雨过程中14时、16时降水预报落区、强度较实况接近,6小时降水预报,区域性大暴雨过程预报时间滞后。1小时降水预报随着时效的临近,量级逐渐减弱,同时预报小时雨强大,强降水预报频次偏多。成都大运会开幕式、闭幕式期间2023年7月28日-8月8日,降水预报完全正确; 温度预报平均误差较小,订正后误差在1.0 ℃以内; 风力预报准确率达70%以上。
- Abstract:
- To better evaluate the performance and application of CMA-MESOv6.0 model forecast products,the CMA-MESOv6.0 model forecast products and the automatic weather station data in the Chengdu area were used to analyze the two regional rainstorms(20230712)and heavy rainstorm(20230713)processes during the preparation of the Chengdu Universiade,and to test the precipitation,temperature and wind during the opening(20230728)and closing(20230808)ceremonies of the Chengdu Universiade by combining subjective and objective methods.The results showed that the 24-hour precipitation forecast form was close to the actual situation,the precipitation forecast area and intensity of 14:00 in the regional rainstorm process were close to the actual situation,and the precipitation forecast area and intensity of 16:00 in the regional heavy rainstorm process were close to the actual situation.According to the 6-hour precipitation forecast,the regional heavy rainstorm process forecast time tended to lag.With the approach of time effect,the magnitude of the 1-hour precipitation forecast was gradually weakened,the forecast hourly rain intensity was strong,and the frequency of heavy precipitation forecast was higher.During the opening and closing ceremonies of the Chengdu Universiade,the precipitation forecast was completely correct; the average error of temperature prediction was small,and the error after correction was within 1.0 ℃; the accuracy of the wind forecast was more than 70%.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-11-21
基金项目:四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2023NSFSC0242)、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金资助项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202203)
通信作者:黄楚惠.E-mail:huangchu267@sina.com