YANG Meng,CHEN Ning,DENG Ye,et al.Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and its Composite Extreme Value Distribution in Chengdu from 1960 to 2022[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):652-659.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.012]
成都市1960-2022年极端降水时空分布及复合极值模型研究
- Title:
- Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and its Composite Extreme Value Distribution in Chengdu from 1960 to 2022
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0652-08
- Keywords:
- extreme precipitation; spatiotemporal distribution; composite extreme value distribution; recurrence period; Chengdu
- 分类号:
- P426.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究成都市极端降水时空分布及其在不同重现期下的演变特征,利用成都市14个国家站1960-2022年的逐日降水量资料,选取第99个百分位值为极端降水量的阈值,运用线性倾向估计方法,并基于复合极值理论,对成都市极端降水的时空分布和重现期特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)成都市63年来极端降水日数和极端降水总量呈弱减少趋势,极端降水强度呈弱增加趋势,线性倾向率分别为-0.04 d/10a、-1.9 mm/10a和0.9 mm/(d·10a)。(2)成都市极端降水日数和极端降水总量总体呈现西高东低的空间分布特征,有增加趋势的地区集中在成都市西部和西北部; 极端降水强度呈现较复杂的空间分布格局,71.4%的地区极端降水强度均有增强趋势。(3)成都市不同重现期极端降水量总体上呈现由西向东递减的趋势,并表现为成都市西部沿山一带和中东部龙泉山一带普遍高于中部和东部平原地区的特征; 成都市极端降水量的统计推断值对气候变化表现出较复杂的空间响应特征。
- Abstract:
- To study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Chengdu and its evolution characteristics under different recurrence periods,daily precipitation data of 14 national stations in Chengdu from 1960 to 2022were used,and the 99th percentile was selected as the threshold of extreme precipitation.Using linear tendency estimation and compound extreme value theory,the spatial and temporal distribution and recurrence period of extreme precipitation in Chengdu were analyzed.The results show that(1)The number of extreme precipitation days and the total amount of extreme precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend in Chengdu,while the extreme precipitation intensity showed a weak increasing trend.The linear trend rates were -0.04 d/10a,-1.9 mm/10a and 0.9 mm/(d·10a),respectively.(2)The number of extreme precipitation days and the total amount of extreme precipitation in Chengdu showed the spatial distribution characteristics of higher in the west and lower in the east.The areas with an increasing trend were concentrated in the west and northwest of Chengdu.The extreme precipitation intensity showed a complicated spatial distribution pattern,and the extreme precipitation intensity in 71.4% of the regions showed an increasing trend.(3)The extreme precipitation amounts during different recurrence intervals generally exhibit a decreasing trend from west to east,characterized by higher values along the western mountainous areas and the Longquan Mountains in the middle-eastern region compared to the central and eastern plains in Chengdu.The statistical inferences of extreme precipitation in Chengdu show complex spatial responses to climate change.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-03-13
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3709301)
通信作者:倪长健.E-mail:ncj1970@163.com