LI Xiehui,YANG Jingkun,LEI Qinya.Study of the Correlation Impact of Urbanization Development and Extreme Precipitation Events in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):660-666.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.013]
四川省城镇化发展与极端降水事件的关联影响研究
- Title:
- Study of the Correlation Impact of Urbanization Development and Extreme Precipitation Events in Sichuan Province
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0660-07
- Keywords:
- Sichuan Province; urbanization impact; extreme precipitation index; cluster analysis; robust local weight regression method
- 分类号:
- P49
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究四川省城镇化发展与极端降水事件的关联影响,利用36个气象站点1980-2020年降水日值数据、夜间灯光和土地利用遥感数据、经济和人口空间分布网格数据,计算11个极端降水指数,利用K-means和层次聚类相结合的方法划分城市、城郊和乡村三类气象站点后,对四川省城镇化进程中极端降水事件的时间变化趋势及其与城镇化的关联影响进行分析,还对3个时段(1980-2010年、1980-2015年、1980-2020年)极端降水事件的区域平均变化趋势和城乡不同类别气象站点的变化趋势差值进行了研究。结果表明:四川省1980-2020年极端降水指数的年际变化除极端降水事件的强度有上升趋势外,其他变化均不显著; 城市和城郊站点的连续干旱日数、湿日降水量和强降水量受城镇化影响可能很大,但连续湿润日数、中等强度降水日数和暴雨以上降水日数则受城镇化影响可能很小; 连续湿润日数在1980-2010年呈减少趋势,降水强度在1980-2020年呈增强趋势,连续干旱日数在1980-2015年城市与乡村站点、城郊与乡村站点的变化趋势差值都呈增加趋势。研究结果可为减少四川极端降水事件灾害风险,布局未来城市规划和城市可持续发展提供参考。
- Abstract:
- To study the correlation between urbanization development and extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Province,this study utilized daily precipitation data from 1980 to 2020 from 36 meteorological stations,along with night light and land use remote sensing data,and economic and population spatial distribution grid data.By calculating 11 extreme precipitation indices,and classifying the 36 meteorological stations into urban,suburban,and rural categories using a combined approach of K-means and hierarchical clustering,this research not only analyzed the temporal trends of extreme precipitation events during the urbanization process in Sichuan Province and their association with urbanization,but also discussed the regional trends of extreme precipitation events and the differences among the three types of stations for three periods(1980-2010,1980-2015,1980-2020).The results showed the interannual variation of the extreme precipitation indices in Sichuan Province over the past 41 years was not significant,except for the increasing intensity of extreme precipitation events; The CDD,PRCPTOT,and R95p at urban and suburban stations may be greatly affected by urbanization,while the CWD,R20 and R50 may be slightly affected by urbanization; The CWD showed a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2010,while the SDII showed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020.The differences in the changing trend of CDD between urban and rural stations,as well as between suburban and rural stations,showed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2015.The research results can provide a reference basis for reducing the risk of extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Province and for future urban planning and sustainable development.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-01-16
基金项目:科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0105); 中国气象局干旱气象科学研究基金资助项目(IAM202201)
通信作者:杨静坤.E-mail:462488104@qq.com