WEI Yihang,LI Xiehui.Analysis of the Monitoring Applicability of Three Meteorological Drought Indices in Yunnan Province under the Background of Warming[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):676-682.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.015]
变暖背景下三种气象干旱指数在云南省的监测适用性分析
- Title:
- Analysis of the Monitoring Applicability of Three Meteorological Drought Indices in Yunnan Province under the Background of Warming
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0676-07
- Keywords:
- meteorological drought index; PA index; SPI; SPEI; monitoring applicability analysis; Yunnan Province
- 分类号:
- P462.3
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为在全球变暖背景下探讨气象干旱指数对云南省的监测适用性,利用1990-2020年25个气象站的日气温和降水数据,计算3种气象干旱指数,基于ArcGIS软件首先对挑选的28个历史干旱事件进行空间插值,并将插值结果与实际旱情对比分析; 然后挑选2019-2020年比较严重的两次连旱事件,通过干旱强度和干旱过程与实际旱情获得3种气象干旱指数在长周期季节性连旱事件中的监测适用性。结果表明:(1)标准化降水蒸散SPEI对春旱和秋旱的监测效果优于其他两种指数,与实际旱情最符合,标准化降水SPI和月平均降水距平百分率PA分别对夏旱和冬旱的监测效果与实际最接近;(2)通过分析3种不同干旱指数对单一测站的干旱变化监测过程,发现SPI较能真实表征2019年6-10月的夏秋连旱和2020年3-8月春夏连旱的波动特征;(3)PA和SPEI分别对2019年6-10月和2020年3-8月干旱强度的监测比较准确。研究结果表明3种气象干旱指数对不同时间尺度、不同干旱过程和不同干旱强度的云南干旱监测适用性都有差异,没有一种干旱指数能监测到所有干旱特征,因此具体使用时需要根据不同情况优选监测适用性较强的指数进行具体分析和讨论。
- Abstract:
- To explore the applicability of meteorological drought indices for monitoring Yunnan Province in the context of global warming,three meteorological drought indices were calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations from 1990 to 2020.Based on ArcGIS software,spatial interpolation was first performed on the selected 28 historical drought events,and the interpolation results were compared and analyzed with actual drought conditions.Then,two more serious consecutive drought events from 2019 to 2020 were selected as the objects of the study,the applicability of the three indices to Yunnan drought monitoring in the long-period real drought situation was obtained by comparing the intensity and process of the drought with the actual disaster description.The results show that:(1)Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)is better than the other two indices in monitoring spring and autumn drought,and is most consistent with the actual drought conditions,while SPI(Standardized precipitation index)and PA(precipitation anomaly percentage)is closest to the actual in monitoring summer and winter drought,respectively;(2)from the analysis of the three drought indices on the drought fluctuation process of a single site,SPI is more capable of realistically characterizing the fluctuation of the summer and autumn continuous drought in June-October 2019,and the spring and summer continuous drought in March-August 2020;(3)PA is more accurate in monitoring the intensity of drought in June-October 2019,and SPEI is more accurate in monitoring the intensity of drought in March-August 2020.The research results indicate that the applicability of the three meteorological drought indices to drought monitoring in Yunnan varies with different time scales,drought processes and drought intensities.No one drought index can monitor all drought characteristics.Therefore,the specific use needs to be based on the different circumstances of the preferred indices with strong monitoring applicability for specific analysis and discussion.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-03-21
基金项目:云南省科技厅重点研发计划资助项目(202203AC100005、202203AC100006); 四川省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心开放重点资助项目(ZHYJ23-ZD01)
通信作者:李谢辉.E-mail:lixiehui@cuit.edu.cn