REN Zhihan,CHEN Ning,DENG Ye,et al.Analysis of Characteristics of Continuous Seasonal Droughts Probability based on Copula Function in Chengdu[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):683-690.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.016]
基于Copula函数的成都市季节连旱概率分布特征
- Title:
- Analysis of Characteristics of Continuous Seasonal Droughts Probability based on Copula Function in Chengdu
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0683-08
- Keywords:
- continuous seasonal drought; probability distribution characteristics; Copula function; Chengdu city
- 分类号:
- P429
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为得到成都市季节连旱概率分布特征,利用成都市14个国家站1960-2022年逐日降水数据,选择干旱指数降水距平百分率(PA),通过对SciPy库概率分布函数的优选,确定成都市14个国家站4个季节PA序列的最优边缘概率分布函数。进而根据RMSE、AIC和BIC最小值选定14个国家站的最优Copula联合概率分布函数,构建成都市季节连旱Copula联合概率分布模型。成都市14个国家站4个PA序列的最优边缘概率分布函数均通过了显著性水平α=0.05的K-S检验,对应Copula联合概率分布函数均能很好地表征成都市两两季节间PA序列的联合概率分布特征,理论累积概率和实测累积概率线性拟合决定系数R2值为0.9697～0.9974。研究结果表明:成都市14个区市县春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、秋冬连旱和冬春连旱同现重现期的空间分布总体呈现西高东低的特征,相比于春夏连旱和夏秋连旱,秋冬连旱和冬春连旱的发生概率更大,其中又以轻旱与轻旱的联合概率最高。
- Abstract:
- To draw the probabilistic characteristics of continuous seasonal drought in Chengdu,we use the daily precipitation data of 14 national stations in Chengdu from 1960 to 2022,combining the percentages of precipitation anomaly(PA),to determine the optimal marginal probability distributions of the seasonal series of PA of 14 national stations in Chengdu based on the optimization of probability distributions belonging to SciPy package,and the root-mean-square-error(RMSE),Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),and Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)of three kinds of Copula functions were calculated,respectively,to construct the optimization of Copula joint probability distribution function for 14 national stations further.The optimal marginal probability distributions of the seasonal series of PA of 14 national stations in Chengdu past the K-S test at a significant level of α=0.05.Responding Copula joint probability distribution function has excellent fitting effects on the joint probability distribution characteristics of the series of PA between two adjacent seasons in Chengdu,the determination coefficient R2 value of linear fitting between theoretical joint probability and observed ones are between 0.9697 and 0.9974.The results show that the spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period of continuous droughts between adjacent seasons in 14 districts in Chengdu are generally characterized by high in the west and low in the east,using the Copula joint probability distribution model; Compared with continued droughts during spring-summer and summer-autumn,Chengdu is prone to continuous droughts during autumn-winter and winter-spring,and the joint probability of light drought and light drought is the highest above all.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-02-28
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3709301)
通信作者:倪长健.E-mail:ncj1970@163.com