XU Jiliang,ZHANG Wei,GU Lei,et al.Comparison and Analysis of Multiple Visibility Diagnostic Methods for Airports based on GRAPES_RAFS Numerical Prediction System[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(05):697-703.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.05.018]
基于GRAPES_RAFS数值预报系统的机场能见度多种诊断方法的比较分析
- Title:
- Comparison and Analysis of Multiple Visibility Diagnostic Methods for Airports based on GRAPES_RAFS Numerical Prediction System
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)05-0697-07
- 分类号:
- P457.7
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为改善机场能见度的预报准确性,使其更加贴合民航业务运行,基于GRAPES_RAFS数值预报系统,利用Stoelinga Warner(SW)、SW-V1、Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)、Forecast Systems Laboratory(FSL)、Air Force Weather Agency(AFWA)、AFWA-FSL(A-F)等6种能见度诊断方法计算38个千万级机场的能见度,并与机场例行天气报告进行比较,分析平均相对误差和平均绝对误差,得出适用于机场的能见度诊断方法。结果表明:RUC和A-F方法的诊断结果较其他方法好; 同时考虑标准差,A-F方法诊断结果更稳定,优于RUC方法。最后,以各机场A-F方法的MRE作为修正项,得出A-F方法的修正公式,对于不同类型的机场可进行相应的修正。
- Abstract:
- To improve the accuracy of airport visibility forecasting and make it more relevant to the civil aviation business operation,based on GRAPES_RAFS numerical prediction system,the visibility of 38 ten-million-level airports was calculated using six visibility diagnostic methods,including Stoelinga Warner(SW),SW-V1,Rapid Update Cycle(RUC),Forecast Systems Laboratory(FSL),Air Force Weather Agency(AFWA)and AFWA-FSL(A-F).And compared with the airport routine weather report(METAR),Analyzing mean relative error(MRE)and mean absolute error(MAE),to get the visibility diagnostic method applicable to airports.The results show that the diagnostic results of RUC and A-F are better than other methods; considering the standard deviation,the A-F method is more stable and better than RUC.Finally,using the MRE of each airport A-F method as the correction term,the correction formula of the A-F method is obtained,which can be corrected for different types of airports.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-01-16
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFB2601700)
通信作者:徐记亮.E-mail:xujl0408@sina.com