CHEN Huangchi,YUAN Shujie,LI Shangfeng.Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Changes in Winter in Northeast China under Climate Change[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2026,41(01):116-124.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2026.01.016]
气候变化背景下东北冬季极端气温变化特征
- Title:
- Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Changes in Winter in Northeast China under Climate Change
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2026)01-0116-09
- Keywords:
- Northeast China; extreme temperatures in winter; linear change trend; mutation testing; correlation
- 分类号:
- P423
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探讨全球变暖背景下东北冬季极端气温变化特征,利用1961-2021年CN05.1逐日最高气温、最低气温数据,应用线性趋势法、经验函数正交分解、M-K检验等方法,分别从季、月尺度分析1961-2020年东北三省冬季极端最高气温、极端最低气温变化特征。结果表明:(1)东北三省冬季及各月极端最高气温、极端最低气温变化主要空间分布分别为全区一致变化、南北反相变化,即全区一致偏暖(冷)或北部偏暖(冷)而南部偏冷(暖)。(2)从季尺度看,近60 a东北三省冬季极端最高气温部分仅部分区域呈显著增暖趋势,增温幅度为0.20～1.00 ℃/10a; 极端最低气温大部分区域呈显著增暖趋势,增温幅度为0.40～1.10 ℃/10a。(3)从月尺度看, 2月极端最高、极端最低气温增暖范围与幅度均大于1月、12月,2月极端最高、极端最低气温增温幅度分别为0.20～0.90 ℃/10a、0.40～0.80 ℃/10a。(4)东北三省冬季以及2月极端最高气温分别在1985年、1992年发生突变,极端最低气温均在1980年左右发生突变。12月和1月极端最高气温、极端最低气温均无显著突变年份。(5)冬季各月间极端最高气温相关性较弱,多数区域相关系数未通过显著性检验,各月份的极端最低气温相关系数则全区通过显著性检验,相关系数为0.20～0.70。
- Abstract:
- To explore the characteristics of extreme temperature in Northeast China in winter under the background of global warming, using the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of CN05.1 from 1961 to 2021, to analyze the characteristics of extreme maximum and minimum temperature in winter in the three provinces of Northeast China from 1961 to 2020 from 1961 to 2020 by using linear trend method, orthogonal decomposition of empirical function, M-K test and other methods, respectively. The results show that:(1)The main spatial distribution of extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in winter and each month in the three provinces of Northeast China is the consistent change of the whole region and the reverse phase change of the north and south, that is, the whole region is uniformly warm(cold)or warm(cold)in the north and cold(warm)in the south.(2)From the seasonal scale, only some areas of the extreme maximum temperature in winter in the three provinces of Northeast China showed a significant warming trend in the past 60 years, with a warming range of 0.20-1.00 ℃/10 years. The extreme minimum temperature showed a significant warming trend in most areas, with a warming range of0.40-1.10 ℃/10a.(3)From the monthly scale, the range and amplitude of extreme maximum and minimum temperature increases in February were greater than those in January and December, and the warming ranges of extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in February were 0.20-0.90 ℃/10a and 0.40-0.80 ℃/10a, respectively.(4)The extreme maximum temperature in winter and February in the three provinces of Northeast China abruptly changed in 1985 and 1992, respectively, and the extreme minimum temperature changed abruptly around 1980. There was no significant abrupt change in the extreme maximum andminimum temperature in December and January.(5)The correlation between the extreme minimum temperature in each month in winter was weak, with the correlation coefficients failing to meet the significance threshold across most regions. In contrast, the correlation coefficients for the extreme minimum temperatures of each month throughout the entire region passed the significance test, ranging from 0.20 to 0.70.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-06-19
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY201506001)
通信作者:李尚锋.E-mail:ice-lsf@163.com。