TANG Pei,WANG Yang,YUAN Jing,et al.Preliminary Study on the Influence of Meteorological Factors on the Daily Maximum Electrical Load in Suining Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2026,41(02):223-228.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2026.02.013]
气象因素对遂宁地区日最大电力负荷影响的初步研究
- Title:
- Preliminary Study on the Influence of Meteorological Factors on the Daily Maximum Electrical Load in Suining Area
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2026)02-0223-06
- 分类号:
- P427.31+5
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究遂宁市电网最大电力负荷在不同时间尺度上的变化特征及其与气象因子的相关性,利用遂宁市2021-2023年每日逐15min电力负荷数据和遂宁市本站同期的气象要素观测数据,采用最小二乘法将气象负荷从总负荷中剔除后进行探讨。研究得出:2021-2023年,遂宁地区逐日最大电力负荷呈现与气象条件紧密相关的显著季节性特征、夏冬双峰型态和逐年增长趋势。夏季和冬季是极端用电负荷出现的主要时段,夏季尤为显著(占比高达88%)。夏季8月更是极端用电负荷发生最频繁的月份(占比38%)。将日最高气温划分为4段后得出气温对气象负荷影响最为显著,特别是当日最高气温≥32 ℃时气象负荷与气温的相关性达到最高。
- Abstract:
- To study the characteristics of maximum electric load changes in different time scales and its correlation with meteorological factors in Suining Power Grid. The result is explored after the meteorological load was separated from the daily maximum electrical load using the least squares method, using the 15-minute interval daily electrical load data from 2021 to 2023 and the meteorological observation data in Suining City during the same period. The results show that during the period from 2021 to 2023, the maximum electrical load in Suining showed significant seasonal characteristics, bimodal pattern of summer and winter, and increased linearly, these are closely related to meteorological conditions. Extreme electrical load mainly occurred in summer and winter, with a proportion of up to 88% in summer, and August was the month with the highest frequency of extreme electrical load occurrence(38%). After dividing the daily maximum temperature into four grades, the correlation between meteorological load and meteorological factors showed that temperature significantly correlates with meteorological load. Especially when the maximum temperature was≥32 ℃, the correlation between meteorological load and temperature reached the highest.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-05-14
基金项目:高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金资助项目(SCQXKJQN202202)