MA You-xuan,SHI Xing-he,XIANG Ya-fei,et al.Climate Prediction Assessment and Precursor Signal Analysis in 2016 Flood Season of Qinghai[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(05):559-566.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.016]
2016年青海省汛期气候预测评估及先兆信号分析
- Title:
- Climate Prediction Assessment and Precursor Signal Analysis in 2016 Flood Season of Qinghai
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2017)05-0559-08
- Keywords:
- climatology; climate prediction; flood season; El Nino; South Asia high pressure; western pacific subtropical high
- 分类号:
- P466
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 2016年夏季,青海省气温创历史新高,极端降水事件多发,由极端降水引发的暴雨洪涝灾害损失为近5年同期最重。为总结汛期预测技术方法和经验,提高汛期气候预测准确率,基于美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心提供的2.5°×2.5°水平分辨率的位势高度场、水平风场、水汽场等逐日再分析资料和1961-2016年青海逐日气温和降水观测等资料,对2016年青海省主汛期气候预测进行全面回顾,分析汛期预测考虑的先兆因子,并着重分析对夏季青海气候影响较大的3个因子(厄尔尼诺、南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压)的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2016年5月初发布的汛期预测较好地体现了西部地区少雨、东北部多雨的特征,对全省大部降水偏少的总体趋势和东北部地区多雨中心的把握较为准确,全省气温偏高的总体趋势与实况较为一致,但对气温偏高的幅度把握不足;(2)厄尔尼诺衰减年,对应汛期青海省大部降水以偏多为主,尤其是青海省东北部地区;(3)2016年6-8月,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、面积偏大、西伸脊点位置偏西,南亚高压中心在青藏高原上维持,强度持续偏强,中心位置东西摆动幅度大;(4)6月下旬、7月中旬以及8月上中旬南亚高压异常偏东、偏强,以及500 hPa西太平洋热带高压异常西伸,导致青海省汛期极端降水事件多发; 夏季南亚高压与西太平洋副热带高压的上下叠加和维持是导致青海省汛期出现高温天气的主要原因。
- Abstract:
- In summer of 2016, the temperature reached a high record and extreme precipitation event happened frequently in Qinghai. Because of the extreme precipitation, rainstorm floods caused the heaviest losses in the nearly five years in the same period. In order to improve the predication skill, experience, and the predictive accuracy of flood season, this paper reviewed the climate prediction of the main flood season of Qinghai in 2016, the precursor factors for the flood forecast, and the trend of the three factors(EI Nino,South Asia High Pressure and Western Pacific Subtropical High)which have significant influence on the summer climate of Qinghai based on the daily reanalysis data of the geopotential height field, horizontal wind field, water field which in the 2.5° × 2.5° horizontal resolution from 1948 to 2016, and the daily temperature and precipitation data in Qinghai province from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that:(1)The forecast of flood season released in early May is a good indicator of the little rain in the western and rainy in the northeast, and it accurately grasped the overall trend of the less precipitation in the most parts of Qinghai and the rainy center in the northeastern region. The trend of high temperature is consistent with the actual situation, but lack of grasping the range.(2)In the second year of EI Nino,the summer precipitation is slightly more than normal in most regions in Qinghai, especially in the northeast region.(3)In summer 2016, subtropical high was stronger, and the position was westward than normal. South Asia high pressure continued in strong intensity and maintain on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, the center position swing east or west heavily.(4)In later June, mid-July and mid-August, the position of South Asian high pressure was further east and abnormal strong than normal, and the western Pacific subtropical high was further west at 500 hPa, this circulation caused the flood season extreme precipitation events in our province. In summer, the main reason for the high temperature was that the high pressure of South Asia and the subtropical high of the western Pacific superimposed on the plateau and formed the long-term maintenance continental high pressure.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-03-15 基金项目:青海省气象局重点项目气象预报预测资助项目(2200508)