ZHANG Chao,CHENG Jun,XU Rui.Comparative Analysis on Mean Amounts of Precipitation and its Changes during 21st Century in Southwest China Predicted by CMIP5 Multi-modes[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(06):645-650.
CMIP5多模式预测21世纪中国西南区域 平均降水量及其变化的对比分析
- Title:
- Comparative Analysis on Mean Amounts of Precipitation and its Changes during 21st Century in Southwest China Predicted by CMIP5 Multi-modes
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2016)06-0645-06
- 分类号:
- P426.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 针对中国西南地区的降水量在21世纪变化趋势的问题,利用第5次模式对比计划(CMIP5)中12个模式的全球月平均降水模拟资料和2006～2010年的全球月平均降水再分析资料,采用区域平均函数计算平均降水量,评估各模式对21世纪中国西南地区降水量的预测结果。研究表明:模式平均的预测结果与再分析资料较接近,对西南地区的降水具有良好的模拟能力。CMIP5计划中多模式的平均结果表明,在RCP6.0情景下,西南地区夏季降水量有增多的趋势,而冬季降水量变化不明显。并且,随着人类活动等不确定因素的增加,多模式预测结果之间的差异性在2051年后显著增加,对比结果失去一致性。
- Abstract:
- In order to investigate the precipitation in Southwest China during 21st century, the simulated monthly mean precipitation from 12 coupled models in CMIP5 and the reanalysis data during 2006-2010 are utilized. The precipitation in Southwest China from the 12 models are assessed by comparing them with the reanalysis data. The results show that the multi-modes mean has a favourable simulation for the precipitation in Southwest China. Under the RCP6.0 scenario, the precipitation in Southwest China during summer has an increasing tendency while the variation during winter is not obvious from the multi-modes mean. Moreover, the variation in multi-models has an obvious increase after 2051 due to anthropogenic activities.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-06-03 基金项目:科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY 201406001)