HUANG Jian,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variations of Drought in Southwest of China in Recent 42 Years based on SPEI Index[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(03):359-366.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.018]
基于SPEI指数的西南地区近42 a干旱时空变化分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variations of Drought in Southwest of China in Recent 42 Years based on SPEI Index
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2020)03-0359-08
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; meteorological disasters; SPEI index; M-K test; spatial and temporal variations; drought frequency; southwest of China
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为在全球变暖背景下研究西南地区的干旱灾害,利用1976-2017年西南地区5省市区116个观测站日值数据,基于SPEI指数,应用线性趋势、M-K突变检验和空间插值等方法,通过计算干旱频率和不同等级的干旱强度,对西南地区整体和单个省市区从年和季节尺度进行了时空变化特征分析,主要得出以下结论:西南地区近42a以来呈较为明显的干旱化趋势,以2002年为突变点,干旱趋势在2002年后明显增强; 云南和贵州的干旱化趋势最为显著,其次是四川和重庆,西藏最不明显,20世纪90年代后极端干旱事件明显增多。整个西南地区的干旱发生频率较高,高频区主要位于云南北部和东南部,四川中东部,贵州东部和重庆北部,低频区主要位于西藏的中南部。轻旱在3种干旱等级中发生频率最高,中旱的高频区域空间分布最广,重旱在3种旱情中发生频率普遍最低。SPEI指数基本能反映出西南地区干旱的时空变化趋势,具有较好的适用性,但仍存在比实际旱情判断相对偏轻的情况。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the drought disaster in southwest China under the background of global warming since the 21st century, applying the 116 observation stations daily data of 5 provinces and cities in southwest China from 1976 to 2017, based on SPEI index, linear trend method, M-K mutation test and spatial interpolation, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the total southwest China and single province and city were analyzed on annual and seasonal scale by calculating drought frequency and drought intensity of different grades. Conclusions drawn are as follows: the drought trend in southwest China has been obvious in recent 42 years, with 2002 as the mutation point, the drought trend increased significantly after 2002. The drought trend in Yunnan and Guizhou were most significant, followed by Sichuan and Chongqing, Tibet was the least obvious, and the extreme drought events increased significantly after the 1990s. The frequency of drought was relatively high in the whole southwest region. The high frequency regions were mainly located in the north and southeast of Yunnan, the middle and east of Sichuan, the east of Guizhou and the north of Chongqing, and the low frequency regions were mainly located in the south-central part of Tibet. The frequency of light drought was the highest among the three drought grades, the high frequency region of middle drought has the most wide distribution in space, and the frequency of heavy drought was the lowest among the three drought conditions. Generally, SPEI index can basically reflect the spatial and temporal variation trends of drought in southwest china and it has good applicability, but there is still a relatively lighter judgment than the actual drought situation.
参考文献/References:
[1] 潘建华,刘晓琼.四川省2006年盛夏罕见高温干旱分析[J].四川气象,2006,26(4):12-14.
[2] 王素萍,段海霞,冯建英.2009/2010年冬季全国干旱状况及其影响与成因[J].干旱气象,2010,28(1):107-112.
[3] 段海霞,王素萍,冯建英.2010年春季全国干旱状况及其影响与成因[J].干旱气象,2010,28(2):238-244.
[4] Chen Huopo,Sun Jianqi.Changes in drought characteristics over China using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index[J].Journal of Climate,2015,28(13):5430-5447.
[5] Xu Kai,Yang Dawen,Yang Hhanbo,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961-2012:A climatic perspective[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:253-264.
[6] 郭燕云,胡琦,傅玮东,等.基于SPEI指数的新疆天山草地近55 a干旱特征[J].干旱区研究,2019(3):670-676.
[7] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis,Summary for Policy Makers[M].Paris:IPCC WGI Fourth Report,2007:195-199.
[8] IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,Climate Change,2013:The Physical Science Basis:Summary of for Policymakers.CE[EB/OL].http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf,2013-10-28.
[9] 熊光洁,张博凯,李崇银,等.基于SPEI的中国西南地区1961-2012年干旱变化特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):192-198.
[10] 贾艳青,张勃.基于日SPEI的近55 a西南地区极端干旱事件时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2018,38(3):474-483.
[11] 王东,张勃,安美玲,等.基于SPEI的西南地区近53 a干旱时空特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):1003-1016.
[12] 刘光轩,温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(西藏卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[13] 赵济.中国自然地理(第4版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1997.
[14] 中国气象局.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2017)[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社,2017.
[15] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[16] 陈超,庞艳梅,潘学标.近半个世纪以来四川盆地气温和降水的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(S1):27-31.
[17] 周丹,张勃,任培贵,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50 a干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(4):677-688.
[18] 熊俊楠,李伟,刘志奇,等.基于多源数据的西藏东南部历史干旱监测与分析[J/OL].干旱区地理,http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/65.1103.X.20190517.1404.038.html,2019.
[19] 刘建华,温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(云南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[20] 罗宁,温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(贵州卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[21] 詹兆渝,温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(四川卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[22] 马力,温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(重庆卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[23] 姚玉璧,张强,王劲松,等.气候变暖背景下中国西南干旱时空分异特征[J].资源科学,2015,37(9):1774-1784.
相似文献/References:
[1]欧映瑜,朱克云,张 杰,等.微波辐射计对昆明雾天的监测及应用[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):54.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.011]
OU Ying-Yu,ZHU Ke-yun,ZHANG Jie,et al.Monitoring and Application of the Foggy Weatherin Kunming by Microwave Radiometer[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):54.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.011]
[2]姜继兰,韩 琳.基于ArcGIS的四川地区城市气候舒适度评价[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):318.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.015]
Jiang Ji-lan,Han Lin.The Urban Climatic Comfort Degree Evaluation in Sichuan based on GIS[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(03):318.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.015]
[3]何 毅,张 杰,朱克云,等.HTG-3型微波辐射计资料在天气诊断分析中的应用研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,(02):213.
HE Yi,ZHANG Jie,ZHU Ke-yun,et al.The Application Research on Weather Diagnostic Analysis Using
HTG-3 Microwave Radiometer Detecting Data[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(03):213.
[4]欧奕含,韩 琳,张小玲,等.成都黄龙溪景区旅游环境舒适度评价及其时空分异[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(02):206.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.02.013]
OU Yihan,HAN Lin,ZHANG Xiaoling,et al.Evaluation of Tourism Environmental Comfort and its Spatial-temporal Differentiation of Huanglongxi Scenic Areas in Chengdu[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(03):206.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.02.013]
[5]田淙海,邓佩云,于万荣,等.山西太长高速公路交通事故与气象条件关系分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(05):532.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.05.010]
TIAN Conghai,DENG Peiyun,YU Wanrong,et al.Analysis of Relationship between High-speed Traffic Accidents and Meteorological Factors on Tai-chang Expressway in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(03):532.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.05.010]
[6]宋雨润,曾胜兰,王式功,等.变温对阜南地区循环系统疾病的影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(02):174.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.008]
SONG Yurun,ZENG Shenglan,WANG Shigong,et al.Influence and Prediction of Temperature Change on Circulatory System Diseases in Funan Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(03):174.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.008]
[7]罗 倩,李谢辉,王 磊,等.四川省1960-2017年旱涝时空变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(02):214.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.013]
LUO Qian,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2017[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(03):214.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.013]
[8]贾何佳,李谢辉,王 磊,等.西南地区干湿演变特征及其对ENSO事件的响应[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(04):451.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.015]
JIA Hejia,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Characteristics of Dry-wet Evolution and its Response to ENSO Events in Southwestern China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(03):451.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.015]
[9]潘昱杉,李谢辉.四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2022,37(02):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.02.012]
PAN Yushan,LI Xiehui.Risk Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(03):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.02.012]
[10]刘思雨,李谢辉.川西北生态示范区季节性干旱灾害风险评估[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(05):580.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.05.013]
LIU Siyu,LI Xiehui.Risk Assessment of Seasonal Drought Disasters in Northwest Sichuan Ecological Demonstration Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(03):580.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.05.013]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-10-21 基金项目:四川省科技厅资助项目(2017ZR0043)