SUN Lijun,LI Xiehui.Study on Drought Disaster Risk Zoning in Yunnan Province under the Background of Climate Warming[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(04):443-450.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.014]
气候变暖背景下云南省旱灾风险区划研究
- Title:
- Study on Drought Disaster Risk Zoning in Yunnan Province under the Background of Climate Warming
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2021)04-0443-08
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; disaster risk; drought disaster; risk analysis; GIS technique; AHP method; Yunnan Province
- 分类号:
- P461
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了对气候变暖背景下的云南旱灾风险进行研究,采用24个气象站点1970-2017年的气温和降水数据以及社会经济和遥感数据等,从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、孕灾环境敏感性、防灾减灾能力出发,通过选取适合研究区特点的指标,利用AHP法建立旱灾风险评估模型,应用干旱灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法以及GIS技术对云南省进行旱灾风险区划研究。结果表明:云南省东部干旱灾害风险最高,北部以及西部处于中等干旱风险区,西北以及南部干旱风险较低。将风险区划结果与云南省实际旱灾灾情比较后表明,采用的旱灾风险模型总体上能表征旱灾风险分布情况,其结果能为当地政府以及有关部门在气候变暖背景下制定防旱抗旱减灾对策提供参考依据。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the drought risk in Yunnan Province under the background of climate warming, using the temperature and precipitation data of 24 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2017, the socio-economic and remote sensing data, based on the drought disaster risk factors on hazard of disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-formative environments, vulnerability of disaster-bearing body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability, the drought disaster risk assessment model established by selecting the indicators suitable for the characteristics of study area,AHP method, drought risk index method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method and GIS technique were applied to study the drought risk zoning in Yunnan Province. The results showed that the risk of drought disaster in eastern Yunnan Province was the high, the north and west of Yunnan Province were in the moderate drought risk area, and the drought risk in the northwest and south was low. Comparing the results of risk zoning with the actual drought disaster situation in Yunnan Province, it showed that the drought risk model used in this paper can generally represent the distribution of drought risk, and the results can provide valuable reference for local government and relevant departments to formulate drought prevention and drought mitigation countermeasures under the background of climate warming.
参考文献/References:
[1] 尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述[J].气象干旱,2013,31(1):182-193.
[2] 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].气象干旱,2012,30(4):497-508.
[3] 国家防汛抗旱总指挥部,中华人民共和国水利部.中国水旱灾害公报:2017[M].北京:中国地图出版社,2018.
[4] 贾慧聪,王静爱.国内外不同尺度的旱灾风险评价研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):138-145.
[5] Islam A R M T,Shen S H,Hu Z H,et al.Drought Hazard Evaluation in Boro Paddy Cultivated Areas of Western Bangladesh at Current and Future Climate Change Conditions[EB/OL].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312028161.
[6] Kim H,Park J,Yoo J,et al.Assessment of drought hazard,vulnerability, and risk:A case study for administrative districts in South Korea[J].Journal of Hydro-environment Research,2015,9(1):28-35.
[7] Liang C,Li D,Yuan Z,et al.Assessing urban flood and drought risks under climate change,China[J].Hydrological Processes,2019,33(9):1349-1361.
[8] Samantaray A K,Singh G,Ramadas M,et al.Drought hotspot analysis and risk assessment using probabilistic drought monitoring and severity-duration-frequency analysis[J].Hydrological Processes,2019,33(3):432-449.
[9] Kim J S,Park S Y,Hong H P,et al.Drought Risk Assessment for Future Climate Projections in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea[EB/OL].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338549598.
[10] 韩兰英,张强,马鹏里,等.中国西南地区农业干旱灾害风险空间特征[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(4):1015-1023.
[11] 何娇楠,李运刚,李雪,等.云南省干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):37-45.
[12] 李建安,张亮,李晶晶,等.安康市汉滨区干旱灾害风险区划分析[J].现代农业科技,2019(6):172-173.
[13] 李家文,黄维,吴炫柯,等.柳州市甘蔗干旱风险区划——基于作物水分亏缺指数[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(22):96-105.
[14] 刘瑜,赵尔旭,黄玮,等.云南近46年降水与气温变化趋势的特征分析[J].灾害学,2010,25(1):39-44.
[15] 王宇,缪启龙,肖伟.云南省40年来气温场变化的基本特征[J].大气科学学报,1996,19(4):478-481.
[16] 罗丽艳,李芸,马平森,等.云南省干旱及演变趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2011,32(2):13-15.
[17] 余航,王龙,文俊,等.云南省500年干旱灾害时空分布研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(12):38-44.
[18] 祁俊青,于文金,谢涛,等.云南省干旱灾害时空变化特征[J].江苏农业学报,2019,35(3):631-638.
[19] 陈为铎,余培刚.“三个维度”看云南旱灾[J].地理教学,2013(19):4-5.
[20] 徐新良,庄大方,贾绍凤,等.GIS环境下基于DEM的中国流域自动提取方法[J].长渡流域资源与环境,2004,13(4):343-348.
[21] 赵静,张继权,严登华,等.基于网格GIS的豫北地区干旱灾害风险区划[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):55-58.
[22] 刘玉英,石大明,胡轶鑫,等.吉林省农业气象干旱灾害的风险分析及区划[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(6):1518-1524.
[23] 常建娥,蒋太立.层次分析法确定权重的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2007,29(1):153-156.
[24] 王以彭,李结松,刘立元.层次分析法在确定评价指标权重系数中的应用[J].第一军医大学学报,1999,19(4):377-379.
[25] 王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[26] 徐新创,葛全胜,郑景云,等.区域农业干旱风险评估研究——以中国西南地区为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):883-890.
相似文献/References:
[1]汤 彬,肖国杰,邬 亮.拉萨市近54年气温变化特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(01):72.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.014]
TANG Bin,XIAO Guojie,WU Liang.Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in Lhasa City in Recent 54 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(04):72.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.014]
[2]雷 蕾,程志刚,冯冬蕾,等.近16年秦巴山区TRMM降水资料的降尺度研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):190.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.014]
LEI Lei,CHENG Zhi-gang,FENG Dong-lei,et al.Statistical Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Data inQinling-Daba Mountains Area in Recent 16 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(04):190.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.014]
[3]刘新超,孙燕玲,朱克云.京昆高速成绵段大雾特征与气象要素分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,(增刊1):54.
[4]田云杰.基于K指数的四川省3月干旱研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(05):571.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.018]
TIAN Yun-jie.Study on Drought in March of Sichuan Province based on K Index[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(04):571.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.018]
[5]潘文琪,肖国杰,孟林夕,等.杭州市臭氧污染特征及其气象成因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(06):664.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.06.016]
PAN Wenqi,XIAO Guojie,MENG Linxi,et al.Characteristics of Ozone Pollution and Analysis of Meteorological Causes in Hangzhou City[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(04):664.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.06.016]
[6]曹 阳,马 盼,王馨梓,等.呼吸与循环系统疾病死亡与气象条件的关联性[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(01):123.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.01.017]
CAO Yang,MA Pan,WANG Xinzi,et al.The Associations between Meteorological Conditions and Deaths for Respiratory and Circulatory Diseases[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(04):123.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.01.017]
[7]阮虞清,李林岑,黄梓芸,等.夏季川渝地区臭氧污染的气象成因研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(04):425.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.012]
RUAN Yuqing,LI Lincen,HUANG Ziyun,et al.Meteorological Causes of Ozone Pollution in Sichuan and Chongqing in Summer[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(04):425.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.012]
[8]张汉声,李谢辉,刘子堂,等.近50年云南省极端气候事件时空变化特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(04):434.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.013]
ZHANG Hansheng,LI Xiehui,LIU Zitang,et al.Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events in Yunnan Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(04):434.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.013]
[9]林颖仪,王式功,马 盼,等.基于气候季节划分的海南岛气候康养特征探析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(06):705.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.06.018]
LIN Yingyi,WANG Shigong,MA Pan,et al.Exploration of the Characteristics of Climatotherapy in Hainan Island based on the Division of Climate Seasons[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(04):705.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.06.018]
[10]刘子堂,李谢辉,杨静坤.四川盆地极端降水事件时空变化特征及未来趋势分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2022,37(04):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.04.015]
LIU Zitang,LI Xiehui,YANG Jingkun.Analysis on Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events in Sichuan Basin[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(04):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.04.015]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-09-08
基金项目:科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助子项目(2019QZKK0105); 风云三号(02批)气象卫星地面应用系统工程资助项目(ZQC-J19193)