TIAN Conghai,DENG Peiyun,YU Wanrong,et al.Analysis of Relationship between High-speed Traffic Accidents and Meteorological Factors on Tai-chang Expressway in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(05):532-536.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.05.010]
山西太长高速公路交通事故与气象条件关系分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Relationship between High-speed Traffic Accidents and Meteorological Factors on Tai-chang Expressway in Shanxi Province
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2021)05-0532-05
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; expressway traffic accident; meteorological factors; daily change; traffic accident risk level indicator
- 分类号:
- P49
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了解气象因素对山西太长高速公路交通事故的影响程度,利用太长高速公路不良天气情况下2011年1月-2019年12月交通事故资料,与同期气象要素资料进行日变化特征对比分析,并采用逐步回归方法拟合四季交通事故与气象因子的相关关系,依据概率密度建立交通事故风险指标,确定事故增长的气象因素临界数值。结果表明:太长高速公路交通事故中,19.63%的交通事故由气象因素造成。交通事故10月最多,日迹变化具有双峰型特征,双峰对应时间分别为10:00与16:00。春、夏、秋、冬交通事故指数关系最为密切的因子分别为降水量、风速与路面湿滑、风速、降水量,二者相关关系拟合结果除秋季外,其余三季均通过0.05的信度检验,可为山西高速公路风险预警服务提供理论依据。
- Abstract:
- In order to understand the impact of meteorological factors on traffic accidents on Tai-chang expressway in Shanxi Province, use the traffic accident data from January 2011 to December 2019 under the condition of excessive expressway bad weather, the diurnal variation characteristics of the traffic accident data and meteorological elements data in the same period were analyzed. The stepwise regression method was used to fit the correlation between traffic accidents and meteorological factors in four seasons. According to the probability density, the traffic accident risk index is established, and the critical value of meteorological factors among different grades of traffic accident risk is given. The results show that 19.63% of the traffic accidents on the Tai-chang expressway are caused by meteorological factors. The number of traffic accidents is most in October, and the change of day trace has the characteristics of bimodal pattern, and the bimodal time is at 10:00 and 16:00 respectively.In spring, summer,autumn and winter,the factors most closely related to the traffic accident index were precipitation,wind speed and road surface slippery,wind speed and precipitation, respectively.The fitting results of the correlation relationship passed the reliability test of 0.05 in the other three seasons except autumn,which could provide a theoretical basis for the risk early warning service of Shanxi expressway.
参考文献/References:
[1] 林毅,李倩,张凯,等.气象条件对辽宁省高速公路交通安全的影响研究[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(3):106-111.
[2] Abegaz T,Berhane Y,Worku A,et al.Effectiveness of an improved road safety policy in Ethiopia: an interrupted time series study[J].Bmc Public Health,2014,14(1):539.
[3] 王丹,高海峰.智能交通之山西省高速公路交通安全防控体系建设[J].公路,2019,64(8):260-267.
[4] 张运福,林毅,李倩,等.气象条件对高速公路交通影响研究进展[J].黑龙江交通科技,2016,39(5):168-169.
[5] Peter, T,Savolainen,et al.The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities:A review and assessment of methodological alternatives[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2011.43(5):1665-1667.
[6] Crevier L P,Delage Y.METRo:A New Model for Road-Condition Forecasting in Canada[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,40(11):2026-2037.
[7] 马力,肖杨.恶劣天气条件下的高速公路交通安全管理[J].交通世界,2019(12):152-153.
[8] 钱莉,安颖颖,赵德强.乌鞘岭高速公路路段多发交通事故的气象条件分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):286-291.
[9] Prusa J M,Segal M,Temeyer B R,et al.Conceptual and Scaling Evaluation of Vehicle Traffic Thermal Effects on Snow/Ice-Covered Roads[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2002,41(12):1225-1240.
[10] 许秀红,闫敏慧,于震宇,等.道路交通事故气象条件分析及安全等级标准——以黑龙江省为例[J].自然灾害学报,2008,(4):53-58.
[11] 罗慧,李良序,胡胜,等.公路交通事故与气象条件关系及其气象预警模型[J].应用气象学报,2007,(3):350-357.
[12] 初彦龙.基于GIS的道路交通气象监测预警系统研究[J].辽宁警察学院学报,2017(6).
[13] 吉廷艳,胡跃文,唐延婧,等.贵州高等级公路气象特征及预报[J].气象科学,2011,31(2):223-227.
[14] 潘娅英,陈武.引发公路交通事故的气象条件分析[J].气象科技,2006(6):778-782.
[15] 贺芳芳,房国良,吴建平, 等.上海地区不良天气条件与交通事故之关系研究[J].应用气象学报,2004(1):126-128.
[16] 丛黎强,杜立群,钮学新,等.城市交通事故与气象条件的关系[J].科技通报,1992(3):174-179.
[17] 窦以文,舒志强,甘璐,等.华北高速公路交通事故的日迹变化与气象要素的关联分析[J].公路,2012(4):167-173.
[18] 高峰,谢勇.吉林省冬季高速公路行车安全气象指标研究[J].气象灾害防御,2017,24(3):15-18.
[19] 白永清,何明琼,刘静,等.高速公路交通事故与气象条件的关系研究[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(2):66-71.
相似文献/References:
[1]欧映瑜,朱克云,张 杰,等.微波辐射计对昆明雾天的监测及应用[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):54.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.011]
OU Ying-Yu,ZHU Ke-yun,ZHANG Jie,et al.Monitoring and Application of the Foggy Weatherin Kunming by Microwave Radiometer[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(05):54.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.011]
[2]姜继兰,韩 琳.基于ArcGIS的四川地区城市气候舒适度评价[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):318.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.015]
Jiang Ji-lan,Han Lin.The Urban Climatic Comfort Degree Evaluation in Sichuan based on GIS[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(05):318.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.015]
[3]何 毅,张 杰,朱克云,等.HTG-3型微波辐射计资料在天气诊断分析中的应用研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,(02):213.
HE Yi,ZHANG Jie,ZHU Ke-yun,et al.The Application Research on Weather Diagnostic Analysis Using
HTG-3 Microwave Radiometer Detecting Data[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(05):213.
[4]罗 倩,李谢辉,王 磊,等.四川省1960-2017年旱涝时空变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(02):214.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.013]
LUO Qian,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2017[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(05):214.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.013]
[5]黄 健,李谢辉,王 磊,等.基于SPEI指数的西南地区近42 a干旱时空变化分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(03):359.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.018]
HUANG Jian,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variations of Drought in Southwest of China in Recent 42 Years based on SPEI Index[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(05):359.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.018]
[6]欧奕含,韩 琳,张小玲,等.成都黄龙溪景区旅游环境舒适度评价及其时空分异[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(02):206.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.02.013]
OU Yihan,HAN Lin,ZHANG Xiaoling,et al.Evaluation of Tourism Environmental Comfort and its Spatial-temporal Differentiation of Huanglongxi Scenic Areas in Chengdu[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(05):206.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.02.013]
[7]贾何佳,李谢辉,王 磊,等.西南地区干湿演变特征及其对ENSO事件的响应[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2021,36(04):451.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.015]
JIA Hejia,LI Xiehui,WANG Lei,et al.Characteristics of Dry-wet Evolution and its Response to ENSO Events in Southwestern China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2021,36(05):451.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2021.04.015]
[8]潘昱杉,李谢辉.四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2022,37(02):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.02.012]
PAN Yushan,LI Xiehui.Risk Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(05):186.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.02.012]
[9]宋雨润,曾胜兰,王式功,等.变温对阜南地区循环系统疾病的影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(02):174.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.008]
SONG Yurun,ZENG Shenglan,WANG Shigong,et al.Influence and Prediction of Temperature Change on Circulatory System Diseases in Funan Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(05):174.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.008]
[10]刘思雨,李谢辉.川西北生态示范区季节性干旱灾害风险评估[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(05):580.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.05.013]
LIU Siyu,LI Xiehui.Risk Assessment of Seasonal Drought Disasters in Northwest Sichuan Ecological Demonstration Area[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(05):580.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.05.013]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-10-11
基金项目:山西省气象局科研资助项目(SXKMSFW20195617)