LI Chunshuang,XU Chenxiang,LI Jinjian.Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Changes in the Section of Kangding to Lhasa along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway from 1980 to 2019[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(03):376-383.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.03.019]
川藏铁路康定到拉萨段1980-2019年极端降水变化特征
- Title:
- Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Changes in the Section of Kangding to Lhasa along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway from 1980 to 2019
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2025)03-0376-08
- Keywords:
- Sichuan-Tibet railway; extreme precipitation; spatio-temporal change; atmospheric circulation; climate change
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究川藏铁路沿线极端干湿事件的变化特征,利用1980-2019年川藏铁路康定到拉萨段沿线13个气象站点的逐日降水数据,基于RClimDex模型计算9种极端降水指数。采用线性倾向估计、小波分析、相关分析等方法研究极端降水的时空变化特征及其与大尺度环流的联系。结果表明:自1980年以来,铁路沿线极端降水指数除持续湿润日数(CWD)为下降趋势外,其他指数呈增加趋势,其中持续干燥日数(CDD)显著上升。空间上,东部站点在多个极端降水指数中上升趋势最显著。强降水量(R95p)占年降水量(PRCPTOT)的比例逐年升高。除CDD外,其他降水指数存在1-3 a振荡周期。大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)等大气环流因子对极端降水事件具有明显的影响。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the change characteristics of extreme wet and dry events along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,daily precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations along the Kangding to Lhasa section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway during 1980-2019 were used,and nine extreme precipitation indices were calculated based on the RClimDex model.The temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation are studied by linear tendency estimation,wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.The results show that,since 1980,the extreme precipitation index along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway has shown an increasing trend except for the decreasing trend of continuous wet days(CWD),continuous dry days(CDD)showed a significant upward trend.Spatially,the eastern stations showed the most significant upward trend among various extreme precipitation indices.The proportion of intense precipitation(R95p)to annual total precipitation(PRCPTOT)is increasing year by year.Except for CDD,other precipitation indexes have 1-3 a oscillation periods. Atmospheric circulation factors such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)have significant effects on extreme precipitation events.
参考文献/References:
[1] 史培军,应卓蓉.中国气象灾害对宏观经济增长的影响分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(6):747-753.
[2] IPCC,2021:Climate change 2021-the physical science basis[J].Interaction,2021,49:44-45.
[3] 袁宇锋,翟盘茂.全球变暖与城市效应共同作用下的极端天气气候事件变化的最新认知[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(2):161-166.
[4] Xu H,Chen H,Wang H.Increased populations will be exposed to the dangerous precipitation extremes across China in the future[J].Frontiers in Earth Science,2022,10:963042.
[5] 高华喜,殷坤龙.降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J].岩土力学,2007,136(5):1055-1060.
[6] 景可,焦菊英.基于全球气候变暖的土壤侵蚀态势初见[J].中国水土保持,2011,351(6):7-9+69.
[7] 郭晓军,范江琳,崔鹏,等.汶川地震灾区泥石流的诱发降雨阈值[J].山地学报,2015,33(5):579-586.
[8] 王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.
[9] 杜军,路红亚,建军.1961-2012年西藏极端降水事件的变化[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):990-1002.
[10] 马伟东,刘峰贵,周强,等.1961-2017年青藏高原极端降水特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2020,35(12):3039-3050.
[11] 郑宗溪,孙其清.川藏铁路隧道工程[J].隧道建设,2017,37(8):1049-1054.
[12] Lu C,Cai C.Challenges and countermeasures for construction safety during the Sichuan-Tibet railway project[J].Engineering,2019,5(5):833-838.
[13] 潘桂棠,任飞,尹福光,等.洋板块地质与川藏铁路工程地质关键区带[J].地球科学,2020,45(7):2293-2304.
[14] 徐正宣,张利国,蒋良文,等.川藏铁路雅安至林芝段工程地质环境及主要工程地质问题[J].工程科学与技术,2021,53(14):29-42.
[15] 崔鹏,陈容,向灵芝,等.气候变暖背景下青藏高原山地灾害及其风险分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):103-109.
[16] 陈鲜艳,梅梅,丁一汇,等.气候变化对我国若干重大工程的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(5):337-342.
[17] 彭建兵,崔鹏,庄建琦.川藏铁路对工程地质提出的挑战[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2020,39(12):2377-2389.
[18] 李秀珍,崔云,张小刚,等.川藏铁路康定至昌都段滑坡崩塌灾害特征及空间分布规律[J].四川地质学报,2019,39(3):441-446.
[19] 李国平.青藏高原天气动力学研究的新进展[J].气象科技进展,2021,11(3):58-65.
[20] 李德心,何思明,朱兴华,等.前期有效降雨对滑坡启动影响分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):41-45.
[21] 铁永波,周洪福,倪化勇.西南山区短时强降雨诱发型低频泥石流成因机制分析——以四川省宝兴县冷木沟泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):110-113+187.
[22] 刘佳,郭海燕,邓国卫,等.川藏铁路四川段沿线诱发地质灾害降水阈值研究[J].灾害学,2022,37(1):83-91.
[23] 郭国和,程尊兰,吴国雄,等.川藏公路南线典型冰湖及其溃决危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(2):50-55.
[24] 林志强,路红亚,宁斌.气候变暖背景下西藏地区工程施工气象条件分析[J].气象科技,2015,43(5):978-985.
[25] Peterson T,Folland C,Gruza G,et al.Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs[M].World Meteorological Organization Geneva,2001.
[26] 赵一飞,邹欣庆,许鑫,等.珠江流域极端降水事件及其与大气环流之间的关系[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(9):2528-2537.
[27] 戴声佩,罗红霞,李茂芬,等.1959-2016年华南地区极端降水事件变化特征[J].中国农业资源与区划,2022,43(3):128-142.
[28] 黄鑫,焦黎,马晓飞,等.基于RClimDex模型的近60 a中亚极端降水事件变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2023,46(7):1039-1051.
[29] Zhang X,Yang F.RClimDex(1.0)user manual[J].Climate Research Branch Environment Canada,2004,22:13-14.
[30] 邹磊,夏军,张印.长江中下游极端降水时空演变特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2021,30(5):1264-1274.
[31] 冯晓莉,申红艳,李万志,等.1961-2017年青藏高原暖湿季节极端降水时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2020,39(4):694-705.
[32] 白宇轩,杜军,王挺,等.1971-2020年藏东南极端降水指数的时空变化特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2022,42(3):31-40.
[33] 周天军,张文霞,陈晓龙,等.青藏高原气温和降水近期、中期与长期变化的预估及其不确定性来源[J].气象科学,2020,40(5):697-710.
[34] Dai A,Rasmussen R M,Liu C,et al.A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations[J].Climate Dynamics,2020,55:343-368.
[35] Chen J,Dai A,Zhang Y,et al.Changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition under global warming[J].Journal of Climate,2020,33(6):2025-2050.
[36] Chen X,You Q.Effect of Indian Ocean SST on Tibetan Plateau precipitation in the early rainy season[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(22):8973-8985.
[37] Crétat J,Terray P,Masson S,et al.Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon:relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations[J].Climate Dynamics,2017,49:1429-1448.
[38] 黄怡陶,张文君,薛奥运.ENSO对印度洋偶极子非对称性的影响及机制研究[J].气象科学,2023,43(1):1-14.
[39] 陈涛.AMO不同位相下NAO与青藏高原东部夏季降水关系的变化[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2021.
相似文献/References:
[1]蔡铭钰,程志刚,王俊锋.CMIP6多模式对三江源冬半年极端降水模拟能力评估[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2023,38(02):181.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.009]
CAI Mingyu,CHENG Zhigang,WANG Junfeng.Precipitation in the Three-rivers in Winter Half Year[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2023,38(03):181.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2023.02.009]
[2]马海岩,肖天贵.1960-2020年安徽省极端气候时空变化及与环流指数相关性分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2025,40(02):179.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.02.009]
MA Haiyan,XIAO Tiangui.Spatial-Temporal Variation of Extreme Climate and its Correlation with Circulation Index in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2020[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(03):179.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.02.009]
[3]梁雨欣,陈 樟,赵 勇,等.1983-2022年中亚季节极端降水事件的时空特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2025,40(02):212.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.02.012]
LIANG Yuxin,CHEN Zhang,ZHAO Yong,et al.Spatial and Temporal Features of Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Asia during 1983-2022[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2025,40(03):212.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2025.02.012]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-10-24
基金项目:四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2022NSFSC0215); 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK010304)
通信作者:李金建.E-mail:ljj@cuit.edu.cn