ZHAN Wan-zhi,CHEN Jia,SONG Wen-wen.Analysis on the Characteristics and Causes of Temperature Change in Suining City in Recent 56 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(05):585-591.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.05.017 ]
近56年遂宁市气温变化特征及成因分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Characteristics and Causes of Temperature Change in Suining City in Recent 56 Years
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2018)05-0585-07
- Keywords:
- temperature; change cycle; trend analysis; Suining
- 分类号:
- P423.3
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 利用线性倾向估计法、滑动平均法、小波分析法、突变分析法等对遂宁市1961-2016年气温变化特征进行分析,结果表明:近56年来,遂宁市年平均气温呈上升趋势; 春、秋、冬季和年平均一致,而夏季呈下降趋势。遂宁市年平均气温存在准25 a、10～15 a以及4～8 a周期,且主要以13 a周期变化为主。气温突变分析表明年平均气温发生了突变,突变时间为1992年; 季节上只有秋季发生了突变。年平均最高气温、春季和秋季平均最高气温都呈上升趋势,夏季和冬季平均最高气温呈下降趋势。年和四季平均最低气温都呈上升趋势,增暖在最低温度上更加明显。日较差为减小趋势,遂宁热日数增加,而冷日数明显减少。气温与各要素相关性分析表明,气温与降水日数呈明显负相关,和降水量相关性不明显。夏季气温与降水日数、降水量呈现明显的负相关,与日照时数呈现明显的正相关。
- Abstract:
- The variation characteristics of atmospheric temperature during 1961-2006 in Suining city was analyzed by using linear trend estimation method,moving average method,wavelets analysis and abruption analysis.The results showed that in the past 56 years,the average temperature of Suining city was on the uptrend,and the average temperature in spring,autumn and winter was on the uptrend but downtrend in summer.There is a 25-years quasi-cycle,a 10-15 years cycle anda 4-8 years cycle for the annual meanair temperature.The abruption analysis of temperature showed the yearly average temperature mutated in 1992,and in season only for the autumn.Yearly average maximum temperature and average maximum temperature of spring and autumn was on the uptrend,and average maximum temperature of summer and winter was on the downtrend.The yearly and seasons average minimum temperature was on the uptrend,and the warming was significant on the minimum temperature.The diurnal temperature range was on downtrend.The number of hot days in Suining city was on uptrend,and the number of cold days was significant on downtrend.The correlation analysis between temperature and other factors showed significant negative correlation between temperature and number of precipitation days,and temperature had no significant correlation with precipitation.The temperature in summer had significant negative correlation with number of precipitation days and precipitation,and significant positive correlation with sunshine duration.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-06-05 基金项目:高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金资助项目(省重实验室2018-重点-03,省重实验室2018-青年-10)