ZENG Zheng-mao,LIU Li-ping.Comparison and Analysis of Next-generation C-band Radar(CC)-Gauge Merged Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(01):54-64.
山西地区C 波段新一代天气雷达( CC) 联合雨量计降水效果对比与分析
- Title:
- Comparison and Analysis of Next-generation C-band Radar(CC)-Gauge Merged Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Shanxi Province
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2016)01-0054-11
- 关键词:
- 气象探测技术; 雷达气象; 定量降水估测; 单一Z-R 关系拟合; 云团Z-R 关系拟合
- Keywords:
- quantitative precipitation estimation; single Z-R relationship fitting; storm-based Z-R relationship fitting; me- teorological detection technology; radar meteorology
- 分类号:
- TN959. 4
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 雷达联合自动站进行降水估测是当前气象现代化业务应用的重要方向。使用山西4 部C 波段雷达 (CC)和高密度的地面雨量计资料,结合覆盖山西省的3 次降水过程,评估和分析山西区域范围内雷达定量降水估 测精度,并与南方SA 雷达降水估测结果进行对比分析,结果表明:(1) CC 雷达估测北方降水时,不同的降水过程, 采用单一动态Z-R关系拟合方案和云团Z-R关系拟合方案评估结果基本一致,而SA 雷达估测南方降水在不同降水 过程却有较大的差距,相比单一动态Z-R 关系拟合方案,云团Z-R关系拟合方案平均偏差提高5 % 左右,平均绝对 误差和均方根误差降低了3 %,平均相关系数由0. 83提高到0. 86。因此,南方地区采用云团Z-R关系拟合方案进行 QPE 的误差分析,取得较好的结果。(2)在弱降水过程中,采用云团Z-R关系拟合方案和单一动态Z-R关系拟合方案 的评估结果基本接近,没有太大的改善;(3)对于混合性降水过程,相比相对单一的动态Z-R关系拟合方案,云团Z-R 关系拟合方法可以更加有效地实时反映降水观测资料的时空分布特征,这是提高雷达QPE 精度的另一个重要原 因,这在南方地区的评估中较为显著。
- Abstract:
- Radar-Gauge merge scheme to forecast rainfall is an important direction in the current meteorology industry.This paper estimates and analyzes the radar accuracy of QPE within Shanxi Province based on the data from 4 unit C- band radar(CC) installed in Shanxi province, high-density the gauge and three times of precipitation process covering Shanxi province,at the same time comparison and analysis of QPE result by using SA radar in South . The results show that (1) CC radar to estimate rainfall in the north, different precipitation process, single dynamic Z-R relationship fit- ting scheme and storm-based Z-R relationship fitting scheme evaluation results are basically consistent, and SA radar to estimate the southern precipitation in different precipitation process has a large gap, compared with single dynamic Z-R relationship fitting scheme, storm-based Z-R relationship fitting scheme increase 5 % in the average deviation, mean ab- solute error and root mean square error was reduced by 3 %, the average correlation coefficient increased from 0. 83 to 0. 83. Therefore, storm-based Z-R relationship fitting scheme was used in the southern region QPE error analysis, ob- tained good results. (2)During the light precipitation process, the result of storm-based Z-R relationship Fitting method is similar to the one of single dynamic Z-R relationship method. Both of them do not do good to improve QPE accuracy. (3)During mixed precipitation, Storm-based Z-R relationship Fitting method can reflect the spatial and temporal distri- bution features in real time and more effectively than single dynamic Z-R relationship method, which is the main method to improve radar QPE accuracy, especially in the prediction in the South area.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-02-07 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(91337103)