ZHOU Chen-guang,DU Liang-min,GAO Wei,et al.Application of Climate Model Dataset in Extended-Range Forecast of Regional High Temperature Events[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(05):517-524.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.05.006]
气候模式数据集在区域性高温事件延伸期预报中的应用
- Title:
- Application of Climate Model Dataset in Extended-Range Forecast of Regional High Temperature Events
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2018)05-0517-08
- Keywords:
- regional high temperature events; extended-range forecast; ensemble mean forecast; transfer function; probability forecast
- 分类号:
- TP274+.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 针对近年来湖北省夏季区域性高温事件的频发,利用湖北省历史气温资料,采用两种高温判定方法统计了历史区域高温事件发生的时间和逐日平均最高温度; 利用美国NCEP-CFSv2气候模式历史回报资料,采用集合平均预报方法开展逐日基于多时间序列样本的湖北省区域性高温事件的延伸期预报。设计并使用两种方案对区域性高温事件的延伸期预报结果开展检验,分别为模式输出结果直接使用方案,以及对比模式资料和湖北省历史区域高温事件发生的时间、持续过程以及逐日平均最高温度基础上的系统误差订正方案。在设计多样本集合延伸期预报高温事件有无的转换函数的基础上,开展了湖北省区域高温事件概率预报的检验。结果表明:湖北省区域性高温事件主要发生在7月中、下旬以及8月上旬,其中以7月下旬发生频次最多; 采用系统误差订正方案对区域性高温的预报值和高温事件的预报准确率要优于模式输出结果直接使用方案,其订正后与订正前预报平均值误差相比要减少2.93 ℃,以及提前10、20、30天预报高温事件的准确率分别可达0.81,0.76和0.75。使用的气候模式数据以及研究方法对区域性高温事件的延伸期预报以及概率预报有较好的预报技巧。
- Abstract:
- In view of the frequent occurrence of regional hightemperature events in Hubei Province in recent years, in this paper,utilizing the historical temperature data of Hubei Province, two high temperature determination methods were used to count the time of the historical regional high temperature eventsand daily average maximum temperature; With the American NCEP-CFSv2 climate model data, an ensemble mean forecast method was usedto carry out the extended-range forecast of regional hightemperature events in Hubei Province based on daily multiple time series samples. Two schemes were designed and used to test the extended-range forecast results of regional hightemperature events, they are the directly usedscheme of the model output results, as well as the system error correction scheme based on the comparison model data and the time, duration, and daily average maximum temperature of the historicalregional hightemperature events in Hubei Province. Based on the design of the hightemperature eventsextended-range ensemble forecast presence or absence transfer function,carrying out the probabilistic forecast test of regional hightemperature events in Hubei Province. The results show that the regional hightemperature events in Hubei Province mainly occurred in the middle and late July and early August, of which the frequency of occurrence was the most in late July; the forecastvalue of the regional hightemperature and the forecast accuracyof the regional hightemperature events through using the system error correction scheme was better than using the scheme of the model output results direct use, the corrected forecast averageerror than before correction is reduced by 2.93°C, and theforecast accuracy of high temperature events at 10, 20, and 30 days in advance can reach 0.81, 0.76, and 0.75, respectively. The research method of this paper has better prediction skills for extended-range forecast and probability forecast of regional high temperature events.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-04-27 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502306、2016YFE0102400); 中国气象局核心业务发展专项资助项目(YBGJXM(2018)04); 中国气象局预报员专项资助项目(CMAYBY2018-048) 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502306、2016YFE0102400); 中国气象局核心业务发展专项资助项目(YBGJXM(2018)04); 中国气象局预报员专项资助项目(CMAYBY2018-048)