PAN Yushan,LI Xiehui.Risk Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2022,37(02):186-193.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2022.02.012]
四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估
- Title:
- Risk Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Sichuan Province
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2022)02-0186-08
- Keywords:
- applied meteorology; meteorological disasters; rainstorm and flood; risk assessment; AHP method; entropy weight method; Sichuan Province
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为对四川省暴雨洪涝灾害防御体系的构建提供科学的参考依据,进一步完善暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估工作,利用四川省均匀分布的34个国家气象观测站1961-2017年逐日降水为致灾因子参考数据,选取地形、河网分布为孕灾环境敏感性区划因子,以各州市的经济发展和人口密度等数据为承灾能力易损性判断标准,通过熵权法和层次分析等权重分析法从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性3个方面通过构建评估模型,并利用ArcGIS进行分析计算,完成对四川省暴雨洪涝灾害的风险评估。结果表明:(1)四川省降水频次高、降水量大,致灾因子风险高的地区主要集中在中部、中南部和东南部分地区;(2)四川东部地区相对地势平坦,河网分布密集,受河流分布的影响大,西部相对地势起伏,中东部较西部孕灾敏感性高;(3)雅安及川东北地区人口密度大、耕地面积比重多且人均GDP较低,抗灾能力较弱,承灾易损性能力弱;(4)综合各地区致灾风险、敏感性及承灾能力,川中部雅安和东部部分地区为暴雨洪涝的高风险区,成都地区、川南部的攀枝花、甘孜的西部和德阳等地区为暴雨洪涝的较低和低风险区。
- Abstract:
- In order to provide a scientific reference basis for construction of the rainstorm and flood disaster defense system in Sichuan Province and further improve the risk assessment of storm and flood disasters, the paper used the daily precipitation data based on 34 national meteorological observation stations evenly distributed in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2017, as well as the economic and population data of each state and city. Precipitation and topography, which have obvious influence on rainstorm and flood, were selected as zoning factors, and the three major evaluation factors of disaster risk were analyzed and calculated by weight analysis methods, such as entropy weight and hierarchical analysis method, and the zoning models were established separately by ArcGIS to complete the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Sichuan Province. The assessment model was from three aspects, including hazard of disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies. The results showed that:(1)High frequency of precipitation and high precipitation in Sichuan Province, the areas with high risk of disaster-causing factors were mainly concentrated in the central, south-central and southeastern parts of the region;(2)The eastern part of Sichuan is relatively flat, with a dense distribution of river networks and influenced by the distribution of rivers; the western part is relatively undulating, and the central-eastern part was more sensitive to flood disasters than the western part;(3)Ya’an city and northeastern Sichuan had high population density, high proportion of arable land and low per capita GDP, which made them less disaster resistant and less vulnerable to disasters;(4)Integrating the disaster-causing risk, sensitivity and disaster-bearing capacity of each region,Ya’an city in central Sichuan and some areas in the east were high-risk areas for heavy rainfall and flood disaster, while Panzhihua, Chengdu area, western Ganzi and Deyang in southern Sichuan were low and lower risk areas for heavy rainfall and flood disaster.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-07-05
基金项目:科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0105); 四川省科技计划资助项目(2021YJ0025)