QING Quan,LUO Hui,CHEN Gangyi.Forecasting Model of Torrential Rain in Sichuan Basin based on V-3θ Structural Graphs of L-Band Second Level Sounding Data[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(02):186-193.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.013]
基于L波段秒级探空数据V-3θ图形的四川盆地暴雨预报模型研究
- Title:
- Forecasting Model of Torrential Rain in Sichuan Basin based on V-3θ Structural Graphs of L-Band Second Level Sounding Data
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2019)02-0186-08
- Keywords:
- meteorology; short-range weather forecast; L-Band second level sounding data; V-3θ structural graphs; forecasting model of torrential rain
- 分类号:
- P457.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 针对暴雨天气的短期预报难度大的问题,绘制了基于L波段秒级探空的V-3θ图形,应用结构滚流法分析了四川盆地24次大范围的暴雨天气过程,结果表明:暴雨过程前,一般具有低层偏南风、中层西南风、高层偏北风的整层顺滚流特征,湿位温θsed和饱和位温θ* 相差较小,在中高层200～400 hPa有偏北风和西南风的辐合层,在100～300 hPa有超低温,θsed和θ*线与T轴近乎垂直或左倾,大气处于不稳定状态,建立的暴雨短期预报模型效果较好。
- Abstract:
- Aiming at the difficulty of short-range forecast for heavy rain, the V-3θ structural graph based on L-band second level sounding seconds data is drawn, and the structural roll method is used to analyze 24 large-scale rainstorm weather processes in Sichuan Basin. The results show that before the torrential rain, weather generally has the characteristics of the whole layer rolling flow of the lower south wind, the middle southwestern wind and the upper north wind. The difference between the wet potential temperatureθsed and the saturated potential temperature θ* is relatively small. There is convergent layer of the north wind and the southwest wind between 200-400 hPa and ultralow temperature layer between 100-300 hPa. The θsed and lines are perpendicular to the T axis or tilted to the left. In this case, the atmosphere is in an unstable state, the established short-term forecasting model of torrential rain is effective.
参考文献/References:
[1] 欧阳首承.走进非规则[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[2] 欧阳首承.天气演化与结构预测[M].北京:气象出版社,1998.
[3] 欧阳首承.溃变图的业务操作系统简介[J].成都气象学院学报,1996,38(3):204-210.
[4] 陈祯烈,周莉蓉.成都市”7.30“区域性暴雨、大暴雨过程溃变原理分析[J].四川气象.2003,23(1):7-11.
[5] 蒋丽娟等.V-3θ图的结构与“98.6”暴雨过程预测分析[J].广西气象,1999,20(3):10-12,16.
[6] 杜远林,何龙,王增武.西太平洋副高进退的溃变预测[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2005,20(5):598-603.
[7] 钱俊等.南宁市大雨以上强降水的V-3θ结构特征及预报应用[J].广西气象,2004,25(4):1-4.
[8] 肖天贵,袁东升,向卫国,等.流体溃变与天气系统的转折性变化[J].成都气象学院学报,1999,51(4):313-321.
[9] 鲍玉章,刘冬霞.华南后汛期暴雨的结构预测[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2005,20(2):205-212.
[10] 陆雅君,陈刚毅,张静,等.城市暴雨的细化预测实例分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2011,26(5):517-521.
[11] 张洪卫,张经珍,侯淑梅,等.用溃变理论做暴雨预报[J].陕西气象,2000(4):14-18.
[12] 姜俊玲,张雪冬,魏鸣,等.V-3θ图在一次特大暴雨预报中的应用[J].气象科技,2012,40(4):647-650.
[13] 陈祯烈,周丽蓉,郝丽萍.V-3θ图在区域性暴雨预报中的应用[J].气象,2000,29(1),20-22.
[14] 吴娟.溃变原理-结构分析法在强对流天气中的应用[J].四川气象,2001,21(4),31-32.
[15] Ouyang SC,Wu Y, Lin Y,et al.The discontinuity problem and“chaos”of Lorenz's model[J].Kybernetes,1998,27(6/7):621-635.
[16] Ouyang SC.The Pansystem View of Prediction and Blown-Up of Fluid[J]. AMM,1995,16(3):269-277.
相似文献/References:
[1]廖洪涛,肖天贵,魏 微,等.东亚梅雨季低频波波包传播特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):143.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.008]
LIAO Hongtao,XIAO Tiangui,WEI Wei,et al.Low Frequency Wave Packet Propagation
Characteristics in East Asian Meiyu Season[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(02):143.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.008]
[2]王雨歌,郑佳锋,朱克云,等.一次西南涡过程的云-降水毫米波云雷达回波特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):172.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.011]
WANG Yuge,ZHENG Jiafeng,ZHU Keyun,et al.Analysis of Cloud-Precipitation Echo Characteristics of a Southwest Vortex[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(02):172.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.011]
[3]吴秋月,华 维,申 辉,等.基于湿位涡与螺旋度的一次西南低涡强降水分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(01):63.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.013]
WU Qiuyue,HUA Wei,SHEN Hui,et al.Diagnostic Analysis of a Southwest Vortex Rainstormbased on Moist Potential Vorticity and Helicity[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(02):63.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.013]
[4]李潇濛,赵琳娜,肖天贵,等.2000-2015年青藏高原切变线统计特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):91.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.016]
LI Xiao-meng,ZHAO Lin-na,XIAO Tian-gui,et al.Statistical Characteristics Analysis of the Shear Linein the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):91.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.016]
[5]喻乙耽,马振峰,范广洲.华西秋雨气候特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
YU Yi-dan,MA Zhen-feng,FAN Guang-zhou.The Analysis of Climatic Feature of Autumn Rainfall in West China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
[6]孙康慧,巩远发.20世纪70年代末云南省雨季降水的突变及原因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
SUN Kang-hui,GONG Yuan-fa.Abrupt Change of Precipitation in Rainy Season in YunnanProvince in Late 1970s and its Cause Analysis[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
[7]吴树炎,顾建峰,刘海文,等.高原冬季雪深与重庆夏季降水的年际关系研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):184.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.013]
WU Shu-yan,GU Jian-feng,LIU Hai-wen,et al.Interannual Relationship between Winter Snow Depth over TibetanPlateau and Summer Precipitation over Chongqing[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):184.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.013]
[8]魏 凡,李 超.利用气象雷达信息划设雷暴飞行限制区的方法研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):205.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.016]
WEI Fan,LI Chao.Study on the Method of Setting Up Limited Flying area ofThunderstorm by Using Weather Radar Information[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):205.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.016]
[9]朱 莉,张腾飞,李华宏,等.云南一次短时强降水过程的中尺度特征及成因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):335.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.017]
ZHU Li,ZHANG Teng-fei,LI Hua-hong,et al.Analysis on Meso-scale Features and Forming Reasons of a Short TimeIntensive Precipitation Case in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):335.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.017]
[10]李筱杨,朱克云,程 溢,等.吉林玉米生长期土壤水分规律分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):344.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.018]
LI Xiao-yang,ZHU Ke-yun,CHENG Yi,et al.Analysis of Soil Moisture Regularity in Jilin Maize Growing Period[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(02):344.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.018]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-06-06 基金项目:四川省气象局开发研究课题资助项目(2015-开发-09)