REN Xiaoyue,WANG Wei,ZHOU Ke.Precipitation Changes of Jianghuai Meiyu from 1979 to 2017 and a Typical Event Feature Analysis[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):632-639.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.06.012]
1979-2017年江淮梅雨降水变化及一次典型事件特征分析
- Title:
- Precipitation Changes of Jianghuai Meiyu from 1979 to 2017 and a Typical Event Feature Analysis
- 文章编号:
- 2096-1618(2019)06-0632-08
- Keywords:
- atmospheric science; climate change; Jianghuai Meiyu; sea surface temperature anomaly; El Niño
- 分类号:
- P458
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了研究江淮梅雨的降水情况,采用了中国气象数据网提供的1979～2017年全国气象站点逐日降水资料,欧洲中心的再分析资料与Kaplan Extended的海温异常数据,对这39年里江淮梅雨的变化以及2016年梅雨具体的降水过程和环流情况进行了分析。结果表明: 1979～2017年中有15年的梅雨降水量超过了平均值,其中降水量最大的年份为1996年。作为降水量第三大的2016年,梅雨期间有两次短期持续性强降水过程,降水空间分布呈现以湖北东部、江西南部附近最大值区域为中心,以长江为轴线,向南北方向降水量迅速减小,整个雨带呈现东西方向带状分布的特征。之后着重对两次强降水期间以及前后时期大气各层平均环流形势进行分析,结果显示150 hPa高度场上由南亚高压维持,高压北部有西风带,南亚高压随时间东移延伸至江淮地区上空,使该地区受到高层辐散气流影响,产生强烈的局地上升运动; 500 hPa高度场上有西太平洋副热带高压的北移西伸,江淮地区上空的西南风气流输送的暖湿气体为降水提供了充足的水汽供应,并与南下的冷空气汇合利于锋生; 700 hPa高度场上存在江淮切变线和低空急流,并有东移的西南涡,有利于强降水的发生。最后通过研究此次梅雨前期2015年秋季至2016年春季的海温情况,发现中东太平洋地区有明显的海温异常增暖现象,其中最显著的增暖区域在Niño3区和Niño1+2区范围内,是一次典型的东部型El Niño事件,对后期江淮梅雨的降水十分有利。
- Abstract:
- In order to research the precipitation of the Jianghuai Meiyu,1979-2017 daily precipitation data of national meteorological stations from China meteorological data network, ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Kaplan Extended sea surface temperature anomaly data are used to analyze the changes of Jianghuai Meiyu in the past 39 years and the specific precipitation process and circulation of Meiyu in 2016.The results show that there are 15 years precipitation of Meiyu exceed the average from 1979 to 2017 and the year with the largest precipitation was 1996, 2016 year has the third largest precipitation. there were two short-term persistent heavy precipitation processes during the Meiyu period., The area of maximum value nearby the Eastern Hubei and Southern Jiangxi is taken as center and the precipitation alongside the south-north direction declined rapidly when taken the Changjiang as axis according to the precipitation space distribution the whole rain belt presented the characteristics of east-west distribution. Then focus on the analysis of the average circulation situation in each layer of the atmosphere during the two heavy precipitation and in the period before and after, it is found the 150 hPa height field was maintained by the south Asian high pressure, and there was a westerly belt in the north of the high pressure. As the south Asian high pressure moved eastward over the Jianghuai region, the area was affected by the high-level divergent airflow and generated a strong local upward movement. At the height of 500 hPa, the western Pacific subtropical high pressure moved north and extended west, the warm and humid air transported by the southwest wind over the Jianghuai region provided sufficient water vapor supply for the precipitation and confluencing with the cold air from the north area was beneficial to the frontogenesis. There were Jianghuai shear line and low level jet stream in the 700 hPa height field, and there was a southwest vortex moving east, which was conducive to the occurrence of heavy precipitation. Finally, by researching the sea surface temperature from the autumn of 2015 to the spring of 2016 before the Meiyu period,it find that there are phenomena of sea temperature raised abnormally in the middle-east pacific region and the most significant warming area was within the Niño3 region and Niño1+2 region, which was a typical eastern type El Niño event and was very beneficial to the precipitation of later Jianghuai Meiyu.
参考文献/References:
[1] 朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1992:495-496.
[2] 胡娅敏,丁一汇,廖菲.江淮地区梅雨的新定义及其气候特征[J].大气科学,2008,32(1):101-112.
[3] 徐群.近80年长江中下游的梅雨[J].气象学报,1965,35(4):509-518.
[4] 徐群,张艳霞.近52年淮河流域的梅雨[J].应用气象学报2007,18(2):147-157.
[5] 傅逸贤.也谈梅雨期的划分[J].气象,1981,5:19-20.
[6] 周曾奎.江淮梅雨的分析和预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:9-10.
[7] ZHU X Y,WU Z W,HE J H.AnomalousMeiyu onset averaged over the Yangtze River valley[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2008,94:81-95.
[8] 周曾奎.江淮梅雨[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.
[9] ZHANG Y X,ZHAI P M,QIAN Y F.Variations ofMeiyu indicatoers in te Yangtze-Huaihe River basin during 1954-2003[J].Acta Meteo Sin,2005,19(4):479-484.
[10] 徐群,杨义文,杨秋明.长江中下游116年梅雨(一)[J].暴雨·灾害,2001,11:44-53.
[11] 杨义文,徐群,杨秋明.近116年长江中下游的梅雨(二)[J].暴雨·灾害,2001,11:54-61.
[12] 汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,等.江淮梅雨建立的年际变化及其前期强影响信号分析[C].中国气象学会年会预测与公共服务分会场论文集.2009:85-92.
[13] 毛文书,王谦谦,李国平.江淮梅雨异常的大气环流特征[J].高原气象,2008,27(6):1267-1275.
[14] 丁一汇,柳俊杰,孙颖,等.东亚梅雨系统的天气-气候学研究[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1082-1101.
[15] 黄青兰,王黎娟,李熠,等.江淮梅雨区域入、出梅划分及其特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(5):749-756.
[16] 李勇,金荣花,周宁芳,等.江淮梅雨季节强降雨过程特征分析[J].气象学报,2017(5):35-46.
[17] 龚敬瑜,王谦谦.江淮梅雨期降水不同尺度异常与SSTA的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):656-661.
[18] 王钟睿,钱永甫.江淮梅雨的多尺度特征及其与厄尔尼诺和大气环流的联系[J].大气科学学报,2004,27(3):317-325.
[19] 梁萍,陈葆德,陈伯民.上海地区百余年汛期降水的气候变化特征[C].长三角气象科技论坛.2008.
[20] 胡伯威,潘鄂芬.梅雨期长江流域两类气旋性扰动和暴雨[J].应用气象学报,1996(2).
[21] 赵娴婷,魏建苏,朱定真.急流在梅雨期持续暴雨过程中的作用[J].气象科学,2011,31(2):211-216.
[22] 王丽娟,邓方俊.2007年6-7月西太平洋副热带高压的异常特征及其成因分析[J].气象,2010,36(9):36-41.
[23] 毕宝贵,章国材,李泽椿.2003年淮河洪涝与西太副高异常及成因的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(5):505-514.
[24] 王伟,李建平,丁瑞强.时-空二维波传播分解方法及其在季节内振荡分析中的应用[J].气象学报,2011,69(4):555-569.
[25] 周可,王伟,任晓玥.2010年夏季长江中下游持续性异常降水低频特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,33(4):448-455.
[26] 毛文书,王谦谦,葛旭明,等.近116年江淮梅雨异常及其环流特征分析[J].气象,2006,32(6):85-90.
[27] 魏凤英,宋巧云.全球海表温度年代际尺度的空间分布及其对长江中下游梅雨的影响[J].气象学报,2005,63(4):477-484.
[28] 周丽.近百年全球海温异常变化与长江中下游梅雨[J].高原气象,2006,25(6):139-147.
[29] 毛天松,许乃猷,徐启春.北太平洋海温距平对6月长江中下游夏季风影响及其机制的分析[J].热带气象学报,1988(4):327-334.
[30] 励申申,寿绍文.赤道东太平洋海温与我国江淮流域夏季旱涝的成因分析[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):331-338.
[31] 黄荣辉.灾害性气候的过程及诊断[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:23-30.
[32] 孙淑清,马淑杰.海温异常对东亚夏季风及长江流域降水影响的分析及数值试验[J].大气科学,2003,27(1):36-52.
[33] Narasimhan K Larkin,D E Harrison.On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S.weather anomalies[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32.
相似文献/References:
[1]梁家豪,陈科艺,李 毓.WRF模式中积云对流参数化方案对南海土台风“Ryan”模拟的影响研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(02):162.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.010]
LIANG Jiahao,CHEN Keyi,LI Yu.The Impact of Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes of the WRF
Model on the Typhoon “Ryan” Simulation over the South China Sea[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):162.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.02.010]
[2]汤 彬,肖国杰,邬 亮.拉萨市近54年气温变化特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(01):72.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.014]
TANG Bin,XIAO Guojie,WU Liang.Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature in Lhasa City in Recent 54 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):72.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.01.014]
[3]廖 琦,肖天贵,金荣花.东亚副热带西风急流年际变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(01):68.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.013]
LIAO Qi,XIAO Tian-Gui,JIN Rong Hua.Analysis on Inter-annual Variation of EastAsian Subtropical Westerly Jet[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):68.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.01.013]
[4]喻乙耽,马振峰,范广洲.华西秋雨气候特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
YU Yi-dan,MA Zhen-feng,FAN Guang-zhou.The Analysis of Climatic Feature of Autumn Rainfall in West China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):164.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.011]
[5]孙康慧,巩远发.20世纪70年代末云南省雨季降水的突变及原因分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
SUN Kang-hui,GONG Yuan-fa.Abrupt Change of Precipitation in Rainy Season in YunnanProvince in Late 1970s and its Cause Analysis[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):177.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.012]
[6]雷 蕾,程志刚,冯冬蕾,等.近16年秦巴山区TRMM降水资料的降尺度研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):190.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.014]
LEI Lei,CHENG Zhi-gang,FENG Dong-lei,et al.Statistical Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Data inQinling-Daba Mountains Area in Recent 16 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):190.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.014]
[7]高清泉,韩瑽琤,肖天贵.微波通信链路监测降水试验及可行性探究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(02):197.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.015]
GAO Qing-quan,HAN Cong-cheng,XIAO Tian-gui.Feasibility Study of Microwave CommunicationLink for Rainfall Monitoring Purposes[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):197.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.02.015]
[8]黄 瑶,肖天贵,刘思齐.2016年7月四川持续性强降水的中尺度滤波分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(03):307.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.014]
HUANG Yao,XIAO Tian-gui,LIU Si-qi.Mesoscale Filtering Analysis of Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Sichuan in July 2016[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):307.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.03.014]
[9]李雅婷,苏德斌,孙晓光,等.四川盆地风廓线雷达大气折射率结构常数特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(04):375.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.005]
LI Ya-ting,SU De-bin,SUN Xiao-guang,et al.Characteristic Analysis of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index of
Sichuan Basin based on Wind Profiler Radar[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):375.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.005]
[10]宾 昕,程志刚,王俊锋,等.近17a秦巴山区NDVI季节变化差异及其海拔依赖性特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(03):302.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.016]
BIN Xin,CHENG Zhigang,WANG Junfeng,et al.Seasonal Variation of NDVI and Altitude Dependent Characteristics in Qinling-Daba Mountains in Recent 17 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):302.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.016]
[11]石 宇,肖子牛,朱克云.夏季角动量输送变化与中国东部降水的关系[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(04):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.016]
SHI Yu,XIAO Zi-niu,ZHU Ke-yun.Relationship between Angular Momentum Transportand Precipitation in Eastern China in Summer[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):456.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.04.016]
[12]金凡琦,程志刚,靳立亚,等.成渝城市群热环境效应与植被覆盖度关系研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2019,(03):308.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.017]
JIN Fanqi,CHENG Zhigang,JIN Liya,et al.Study on the Relationship between Thermal Environment Effect and Vegetation Coverage in Chengyu Urban Agglomeration[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2019,(06):308.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2019.03.017]
[13]元 震,肖天贵.高原低涡与OLR、风场的气候变化及低频信号特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2018,(05):551.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.05.013]
YUAN Zhen,XIAO Tian-gui.Climate Change and Low-frequency Signal Characteristics of
Plateau Vortex, OLR and Wind Fields[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2018,(06):551.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2018.05.013]
[14]陈宇航,范广洲,张永莉,等.基于GLDAS资料的青藏高原下垫面变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,(02):204.
CHEN Yu-hang,FAN Guang-zhou,ZHANG Yong-li,et al.The Analysis of Underlying Variation Characteristics
over Tibetan Plateau based on GLDAS Data[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(06):204.
[15]喻琴昆,肖天贵,金荣花.热带MJO活动对四川地区2000～2010年
夏季降水的影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,(02):228.
YU Qin-kun,XIAO Tian-gui,JIN Rong-hua.Impact of MJO Activities on Precipitation in Summer of 2000-2010 over Sichuan[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2016,(06):228.
[16]李星星,陈权亮,姚世博.热带大气季节内振荡对华南后汛期降水的影响[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(02):192.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.02.013]
LI Xing-xing,CHEN Quan-liang,YAO Shi-bo.Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Post-flood
Season Precipitation in South China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(06):192.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.02.013]
[17]王 超,肖天贵,假 拉,等.西藏地区降雪降水天数比率(SD/PD)变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2017,(05):532.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.011]
WANG Chao,XIAO Tian-gui,JIA La,et al.Changes in Days of Snowfall/Precipitation Ratio in Tibet[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2017,(06):532.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2017.05.011]
[18]张禄英,毛文书,庞 波.成都平原气候变化特征[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(02):179.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.009]
ZHANG Lu-ying,MAO Wen-shu,PANG Bo.Characteristics of Climate Change in Chengdu Plain[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(06):179.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.02.009]
[19]霍雅姝,肖天贵,毛世杰,等.成都市龙泉驿区近37 a气候变化特征研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(03):313.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.012]
HUO Yashu,XIAO Tiangui,MAO Shijie,et al.Research on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Longquanyi District of Chengdu City in Recent 37 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(06):313.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.012]
[20]王富萍,肖国杰,蒲学敏,等.宜宾近59 a日照变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2020,35(03):347.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.016]
WANG Fuping,XIAO Guojie,PU Xuemin,et al.Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Sunlight in Yibin near 59 Years[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2020,35(06):347.[doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2020.03.016]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-03-07基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41005034); 公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY201506001)